461
FXUS63 KDLH 060759
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
259 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMUP IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. A LITTLE COOLER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
WHILE STILL ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL.
- SPARSE RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE THIS WEEK. A MORE WIDESPREAD
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHLAND TODAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY, REACHING 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
70S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT, WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING, VEERING WINDS QUICKLY TO THE NORTHWEST
AND EASING OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT:
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TUESDAY TO REACH THE MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S,
AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF
MINNESOTA AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND PUSHES
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES EAST OF A HAYWARD TO BAYFIELD LINE.
A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
WINDS WILL VEER NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY'S COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY WHILE REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. DIURNAL SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AS COLDER AIR
ALOFT ADVECTS EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHLAND. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE LOW 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY THEN UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK:
A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKES SHAPE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GUIDANCE INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN MONTANA AND RIDE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THAT PROGRESSION WILL PULL ANOTHER WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SATURDAY. A COOL FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AND
WILL STALL OUT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
LEAVING A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN. WIDESPREAD SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RAMP UP IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, PRODUCING
LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TO 14Z THIS MORNING.
WIND SPEEDS AT THE GROUND WILL SLOWLY INCREASE, THEN JUST AFTER
SUNRISE, EXPECT ENOUGH MIXING TO BRING GUSTY WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. THIS WILL LESSEN TO DIMINISH LLWS, BUT GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE PREVALENT AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW MODELS
ARE HINTING AT SOME FOG AT A FEW TERMINALS TONIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS REALLY LOW GIVEN THE INCREASING WINDS TONIGHT. I
ADDED THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME BRIEFLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
DLH/HIB. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MOST NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR FOR
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS AND WAVES 1 TO 4 FEET. WINDS VEER WESTERLY TONIGHT AND
EASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY, AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH TODAY
WILL VEER WESTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH ARE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ON WEDNESDAY WILL DROP INTO THE 30 TO
45 PERCENT RANGE, WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SEEING RH
VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES REMAIN 30 TO 50
PERCENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN LATE WEEKEND.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
140-148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LSZ146-147.
UPDATE...KML
DISCUSSION...HUYCK
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...KML
FIRE WEATHER...KML
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