137
FXUS63 KDLH 061856
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
156 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMUP IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
- A LITTLE COOLER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE STILL ON THE
WARM SIDE OF NORMAL.
- ANOTHER WARMUP SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHLAND TODAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY, REACHING 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
70S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT, WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING, VEERING WINDS QUICKLY TO THE NORTHWEST
AND EASING OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT:
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TUESDAY TO REACH THE MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S,
AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF
MINNESOTA AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND PUSHES
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES EAST OF A HAYWARD TO BAYFIELD LINE.
A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
WINDS WILL VEER NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY'S COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY WHILE REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. DIURNAL SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AS COLDER AIR
ALOFT ADVECTS EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHLAND. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE LOW 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY THEN UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK:
A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKES SHAPE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GUIDANCE INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN MONTANA AND RIDE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THAT PROGRESSION WILL PULL ANOTHER WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SATURDAY. A COOL FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AND
WILL STALL OUT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
LEAVING A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN. WIDESPREAD SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
GUSTY SOUTHWEST AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TURN WESTERLY AND
NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
OVER THE TERMINALS. WINDS MAY REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT. IF WINDS
CAN BECOME CALM AT HIB AND BRD, A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE. THE DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PUT THE POTENTIAL OF FOG AT ABOUT 10%. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THE MORNING AS A NORTHWESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL JET PASSES OVER THE TERMINALS. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS THE
CORE OF THE JET AROUND 3-5KFT AGL PROVIDING A VECTOR DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 2KFT OF ONLY AROUND 20-25 KNOTS.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE AND FROM PORT WING
TO SAXON HARBOR FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVES 1 TO 4 FEET. WINDS VEER
WESTERLY TONIGHT AND EASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS
WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY, AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES
RETURN SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT STARTING
TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE AFTERNOON RH VALUES BETWEEN 30 AND
45 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT
10 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ON WEDNESDAY WILL DROP INTO THE 30 TO 45 PERCENT
RANGE, WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN POTENTIALLY SEEING
RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES REMAIN 30 TO 50
PERCENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN SUNDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE WORK WEEK.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
140-146>148-150.
UPDATE...KML
DISCUSSION...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...HUYCK
FIRE WEATHER...HUYCK
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