366
FXUS63 KDLH 062322
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
622 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMUP IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
- A LITTLE COOLER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE STILL ON THE
WARM SIDE OF NORMAL.
- ANOTHER WARMUP SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO EARLY EVENING AND MAY BE
GUSTY ALL NIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. THE WIND WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO UPPER 40S.
A STRONGER SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH A NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. DIURNAL HEATING WILL
SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE
HEATING BENEATH COLDER AIR ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE OF A FEW
SPRINKLES, AT LEAST, IS FOUND OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TODAY, THOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAY REMAIN GUSTY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
PERSISTS.
THURSDAY WILL SEE TEMPS ANOTHER FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES TREND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER.
SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK:
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION FROM SPLIT FLOW WITH A QUASI-ZONAL WIND FIELD OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO A SOUTHWESTERLY
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
NORTHERN US ROCKIES.
WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE EASTERN ARROWHEAD WITH LOW TO MIDDLE 70S OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE I-35 CORRIDOR EAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ARE FORECAST AS OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA OVER
NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT PWATS WILL INCREASE TO 0.75-1.3 INCHES DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO THE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST KEEPING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND RAIN CHANCES IN THE PICTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LARGELY
CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL RETURN LATE TOMORROW MORNING WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE AND FROM PORT WING
TO SAXON HARBOR FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVES 1 TO 4 FEET. WINDS VEER
WESTERLY TONIGHT AND EASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS
WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY, AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES
RETURN SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT STARTING
TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE AFTERNOON RH VALUES BETWEEN 30 AND
45 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT
10 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ON WEDNESDAY WILL DROP INTO THE 30 TO 45 PERCENT
RANGE, WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN POTENTIALLY SEEING
RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES REMAIN 30 TO 50
PERCENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN SUNDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE WORK WEEK.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HUYCK
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...HUYCK
FIRE WEATHER...HUYCK
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