294
FXUS63 KDLH 071122
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
622 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LITTLE COOLER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE STILL ON THE WARM
SIDE OF NORMAL.
- ANOTHER WARMUP SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND, BUT DAYTIME CONDITIONS WILL TURN QUITE MILD AND
BREEZY. TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP A FEW DEGREES
COMPARED TO MODEL GUIDANCE, AS RECENT MODEL FORECASTS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND DAYTIME
MIXING WILL GENERATE GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH. DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT, LIMITING
CHANCES FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL TRIGGER LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES TODAY IN THE ARROWHEAD SPECIFICALLY, THOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ALSO STRETCH ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BEFORE TAPERING OFF TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO EARLY EVENING AND MAY BE
GUSTY ALL NIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. THE WIND WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO UPPER 40S.
A STRONGER SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH A NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. DIURNAL HEATING WILL
SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE
HEATING BENEATH COLDER AIR ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE OF A FEW
SPRINKLES, AT LEAST, IS FOUND OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TODAY, THOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAY REMAIN GUSTY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
PERSISTS.
THURSDAY WILL SEE TEMPS ANOTHER FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES TREND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER.
SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK:
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION FROM SPLIT FLOW WITH A QUASI-ZONAL WIND FIELD OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO A SOUTHWESTERLY
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
NORTHERN US ROCKIES.
WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE EASTERN ARROWHEAD WITH LOW TO MIDDLE 70S OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE I-35 CORRIDOR EAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ARE FORECAST AS OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA OVER
NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT PWATS WILL INCREASE TO 0.75-1.3 INCHES DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO THE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST KEEPING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND RAIN CHANCES IN THE PICTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
THERE IS SOME FOG OCCURRING UP AND DOWN AT HYR AND HIB. SINCE
THE SUN IS RISING, ANY LEFTOVER PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AGAIN IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING. INL COULD SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL, BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT
FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 1 TO 3 FEET
ACROSS MOST NEAR SHORE WATERS, REACHING 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
AND WAVES SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, REMAINING LIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES RETURN SATURDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL BE GUSTY AT 10 TO 18 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. DEWPOINTS TODAY HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT, WHICH LIMITS THE CHANCES FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STILL DROP
INTO THE 30 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN SEEING VALUES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 30 PERCENT.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 30 AND 50
PERCENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN SUNDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ121-141>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ140.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR LSZ150.
UPDATE...KML
DISCUSSION...HUYCK
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML
FIRE WEATHER...KML
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