746
FXUS63 KDLH 072358
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
658 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER WARMUP SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- WINDS FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY GUSTING TO 45 MPH ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THESE WILL BE
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS, LIKELY ONLY PRODUCING SPRINKLES OR A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF NEW RAINFALL. IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION, WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE THIS EVENING, THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AS THE SHOWERS FADE.
THURSDAY WILL BRING LESS WIND, DRY WEATHER, AND MILD CONDITIONS TO
THE NORTHLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN BEGIN ON
FRIDAY, AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM.
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AN EXTREMELY WARM PERIOD SETS UP FOR
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
REGION. A FEW SPOTS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT TO
HIT THE MID 80S. THESE FORECAST TEMPERATURES PLACE A FEW CLIMATE
DATA SPOTS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF REACHING DAILY MAXIMUM HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR OCTOBER 10. SATURDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST 25
TO 35 MPH AREAWIDE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE SOUTH
SHORE WHERE GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE (50-70 PERCENT CHANCE) DUE
TO THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN-PLACE THERE AND AREAS
EASTWARD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER FURTHER WEST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.
A LINGERING VERY WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN OVER EAST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA, THE ARROWHEAD, AND ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, A COOLER AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA SUNDAY, SETTING UP A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AND A DECREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. MEANINGFUL RAIN
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT, PRIMARILY FOR
FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA, AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
CHANCE MONDAY.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A GUSTY AND SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE AREA ON
NORTHWEST WRAP-AROUND FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. BY TUESDAY, COLD AIR ADVECTION RAIN
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME AS THE MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT MOST
TERMINALS, THEN EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. DLH WILL BE AN EXCEPTION WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 15 KT PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME
DOWNSLOPING FLOW ALONG THE NORTH SHORE TERRAIN. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT HIB FOR THE NEXT HOUR AND THEN PASS BY DLH
WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. TEMPORARY MVFR VISIBILITIES CAN'T BE
RULED OUT, BUT VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE PREVAILING. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN
WAVES BUILDING UP TO 3 FEET, AND UP TO 4 FEET FOR THE OUTER
APOSTLE ISLANDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE BY THURSDAY MORNING
AND REMAIN LIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EASTERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY APPROACH
20 KNOTS AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE
FORCE GUSTS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH ALONG WITH DROPPING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 30 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE WILL
CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 30 AND 50 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. HOT, DRY, AND VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, WHICH MAY LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
140>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ150.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...NLY
FIRE WEATHER...NLY
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