491
FXUS63 KDLH 080538
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1238 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET AND BREEZY WEATHER TODAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
- WARMING UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOT WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND DRY AIR.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DISINTEGRATE OVER THE EVENING,
AND THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS OF FOG AROUND THE IRON RANGE WHERE
RAIN HAS FALLEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THERE ARE
PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES AND QUIET CONDITIONS OUT THERE, WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
TODAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST, AND WE WILL
HAVE SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING BY ALOFT THAT SHOULD KEEP PLENTY
OF CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE AIR SHOULD BE PRETTY DRY, SO RAIN ISN'T
EXPECTED, BUT IF THERE WERE A FEW SPOTTY SPRINKLES IN THE ARROWHEAD
DURING THE AFTERNOON, IT WOULDN'T BE SHOCKING. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO PARTIALLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS,
THOUGH CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND. AREAS OF FROST WILL BE LIKELY.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WE'LL GET
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP AS A RESULT. OTHER THAN THAT,
PRETTY QUIET WEATHER ASIDE FROM SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION.
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THE AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY DRY, AND SKIES WILL
LIKELY START TO CLEAR OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BREEZY ALL NIGHT, STEADILY INCREASING IN SPEED.
ON SATURDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE MOVING EAST JUST SLIGHTLY, BUT STILL PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD,
WILL LEAD TO A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH STRONG WARM AND DRY
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. PUT SIMPLY, SATURDAY IS LOOKING HOT,
DRY, AND WINDY WITH THE MAJORITY OF GEFS MEMBERS IN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OR HIGHER OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE HDW INDEX. HIGHS WILL
LIKELY REACH INTO THE 80S FOR MANY PLACES AND WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-
40 MPH RANGE WILL BE COMMON, PERHAPS WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 45
MPH, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY, AND IF CONDITIONS TREND DRIER, CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
WE'LL KEEP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY NIGHT, AND LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S WILL BE RIGHT ABOUT WHERE NORMAL
HIGHS ARE THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON SUNDAY, WE'LL GET A COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WE COULD GET SOME RAIN IN
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH THE COLD FRONT. A SECONDARY TROUGH ALOFT MAY BRING A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN ON MONDAY. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW WITH NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME TEMPERATURES TO
FALL BELOW FREEZING UP NORTH.
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW LATE RAIN MAY EXIT MONDAY NIGHT, AND IT'S
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION INTO TUESDAY, BUT MOST LIKELY WE WILL DRY OUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL, AND
EXPECT MORE BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD. SOME FOG HAS
BEEN PRESENT AT THE IRON RANGE, AND COULD RETURN IN THE EARLY
HOURS OF THE MORNING. THIS PROMPTED A TEMPO FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING, REACHING UP TO 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AGAIN IN THE EVENING.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
OTHERWISE QUIET CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, SO WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS ON FRIDAY, EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOME
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS 15 TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS
SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT, AND WHILE MOST PLACES WILL
SEE GUSTS TOPPING OUT AT 20 KT, AREAS FROM GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND
PORTAGE COULD SEE SOME OF THOSE 25 KT GUSTS PERSIST.
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. GALES MAY BE POSSIBLE THERE (40-60% CHANCE).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED EVERYWHERE ELSE, EXCEPT
POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE NORTH SHORE NEAR GRAND MARAIS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG SATURDAY NIGHT, DECREASING A BIT SUNDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. WINDS THEN TURN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
BECOME BLUSTERY AGAIN. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH RH FALLING TO AROUND 30-45% TODAY
WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING 10 TO 20 MPH. RAIN THAT FELL YESTERDAY
MAY KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOW DESPITE SOME DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO SOME CLOUD COVER TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY AFTER HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. SOME DRY CONDITIONS WITH RH AS LOW AS 30-35% POSSIBLE
IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AT AROUND
20 MPH THERE.
ON SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SUBSTANTIALLY WITH STRONG
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY AIR. THERE ARE APPROXIMATELY 2/3 OF
GEFS MEMBERS FAVORING 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY OR HIGHER FOR
THE HDW INDEX ON SATURDAY. CONDITIONS FAVORING THIS INCLUDE DRY AND
HOT AIR MOVING IN. RH IS LIKELY TO FALL BELOW 40 PERCENT IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE
LOW TO PERHAPS MID 80S. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH 25 TO 40 MPH
GUSTS LIKELY, AND SOME 45 MPH GUSTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS A
RESULT, AND IF CONDITIONS TREND DRIER, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
RH SHOULD RECOVER NICELY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, THOUGH BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THEY GRADUALLY LESSEN. RH
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40% SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH BY MONDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER HUMIDITY. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA, SPREADING SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK SUBSTANTIAL AT THIS TIME, BUT CERTAINLY
SEVERAL PLACES COULD SEE A WETTING RAIN OF A QUARTER INCH OR
MORE.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JDS/KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...JDS/KML
FIRE WEATHER...JDS/KML
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page