944
FXUS63 KDLH 082001
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
301 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH MILD TEMPERATURES THE REST OF
TODAY AND CHILLY AGAIN TONIGHT.
- WARMING UP FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. HOT WEATHER WITH NEAR-
RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER-70S TO MID-80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
AND NEAR-RECORD WARM LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT.
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY
WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 25-35 MPH, DRY AIR, AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES.
- CLOSER TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT:
MILD TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON ALONGSIDE WESTERLY WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
15-20 MPH THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
THIS WILL MAINLY RESULT IN PERSISTING MIX OF CLOUDS AND CLEARING
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND EVENING AS DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE KEEPS PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE SOME PATCHY SPRINKLES AT BEST
(LESS THAN 15% CHANCE) NEAR THE BRAINERD LAKES AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES COOL OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH CALM TO LIGHT WINDS
AND SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER. NOT AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
SET UP FOR AREAS WHERE CLOUDS LINGER. LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES, WITH THE AREAS OF BEST
POTENTIAL FOR AT OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE IRON
RANGE/INTERIOR ARROWHEAD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND IN
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN IF BREAKS IN CLOUDS CAN OCCUR FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT.
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST WILL LEAD TO
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, REACHING THE LOW 60S TO AROUND 70F, AND
SOME 50S IN THE ARROWHEAD DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. WINDS SHOULD BE
ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT FRIDAY, WITH PM GUSTS TO 15-25 MPH,
STEADILY INCREASING OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
FOR SATURDAY, THE NORTHLAND WILL BE WEDGED BETWEEN AN ANOMALOUS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED JUST TO OUR EAST AND TROUGHING
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE DAKOTAS WILL HAVE A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OUT AHEAD OF IT, PUMPING UNUSUALLY WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
INTO THE NORTHLAND RELATIVE TO THIS TIME OF YEAR. GIVEN STRONG,
SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S,
BEING WARMEST IN THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WIND
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED, AS WELL AS MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DIPPING TO THE LOW TO UPPER 30S (%) IN THE
WARMEST AREAS AND UPPER 30S TO 40S (%) ELSEWHERE. THIS
COMBINATION OF FAIRLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH VERY
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. WE STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BREEZY WARM,
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING. AS A RESULT, LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
MANY AREAS SHOULDN'T COOL OFF MUCH BELOW THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S EXCEPT IN FAR NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SEVERAL LOCATIONS
COULD APPROACH RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND
RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT (SEE THE
"CLIMATE" SECTION BELOW).
ON SUNDAY, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY BE MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TIMING OF
THE FRONT, THE I-35 CORRIDOR INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SHOULD
STILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES TOP OUT AROUND 80F TO THE LOW 80S.
MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S, WITH
SOME 60S IN FAR NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH QUICKER. GIVEN LATER COLD FRONT TIMING IN THE I-35
CORRIDOR TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, THE WARM TEMPERATURES, FAIRLY
LOW MIN RH, AND SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK:
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT/TROUGHING IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND SITUATED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. FAR NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
COULD SEE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING, WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN MOVING ACROSS AREAS
MAINLY NORTH OF US HWY 2 (20-50% CHANCE) SUNDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR APPEARS TO LINGER IN THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AREAS THAT DO SEE RAIN LIKELY SEE LESS THAN
0.10".
A SECOND TROUGH ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A LITTLE BIT BETTER SCATTERED, LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHLAND (40-70%, HIGHEST IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN INTO THE
ARROWHEAD). REGARDLESS, ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM
LITTLE TO NOTHING SOUTH OF US HWY 2 TO 0.10-0.20" IN NORTH-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO THE ARROWHEAD. TOTAL AMOUNTS FOR LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT AROUND 0.25"
IN NORTHERN AREAS, WITH DECREASING AMOUNTS WITH SOUTHWARD
EXTENT TO ALMOST NO ACCUMULATING RAINFALL SOUTH OF US HWY 2.
MUCH COOLER, MORE SEASONAL OCTOBER TEMPERATURES RETURN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE LOW
30S NORTH TO LOW 40S SOUTH AND LOW TO UPPER 30S TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
ONCE RAIN CHANCES END LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK:
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS FORECAST A
DIGGING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY TO EJECT
INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST SOMETIME IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THE SURFACE, EXPECT LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
COLORADO VICINITY LATE TUESDAY TO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. THERE
STILL REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES WITH THIS MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK SYSTEM. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE APPEARANCE OF STRONGER SYNOPTIC
FORCING, MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POTENTIAL WOULD BE IN STORE.
SEASONAL FALL TEMPERATURES ALSO LINGER INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK, AS WELL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
BRIEFLY GUST TO 15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOP ON FRIDAY, REMAINING LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING
BEFORE GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
THROUGH. EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS, LEADING TO 15-25 KT GUSTS ON FRIDAY INITIALLY ALONG THE
SW ARM OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH
SHORE FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WAVES OF 2-5
FEET ARE FORECAST WITH THESE WINDS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH VERY
EARLY SATURDAY, THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. WHILE GALES
MAY BE POSSIBLE THERE (30-50% CHANCE), VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
OVER A RELATIVELY COOLER LAKE SURFACE MAY LEAD TO SOMEWHAT
STABLE CONDITIONS AND LIMIT THE STRONGER GUSTS FROM REACHING
DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED EVERYWHERE ELSE, EXCEPT POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE NORTH
SHORE NEAR TACONITE HARBOR AND GRAND MARAIS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG SATURDAY NIGHT, DECREASING SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
WINDS THEN TURN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
BLUSTERY AGAIN. A COUPLE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
MIN RH HAS DROPPED TO 30-40% THIS AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING, THOUGH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
EAST OF THE NORTHLAND. EXPECT FAIRLY LOW MIN RH ONCE AGAIN AT
30-40% FOR MOST OF THE AREA, AND SOME POCKETS OF UPPER 20S (%)
IN INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WIND GUSTS TOP OUT AROUND 15-18
MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS RH RECOVERS.
ON SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SUBSTANTIALLY WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING INTO THE
50S, NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WILL PUSH MIN RH INTO THE 32-45% RANGE, LOWEST FROM THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MOST GEFS MEMBERS FAVOR 90TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY OR HIGHER FOR THE HDW INDEX ON
SATURDAY DUE MAINLY TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. WINDS
WILL BE QUITE STRONG, SUSTAINED AT 10-20 MPH, STRONGEST ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE. WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ARE ALSO
FORECAST, STRONGEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE. LOCALIZED
PARTS OF THE SOUTH SHORE COULD ALSO APPROACH GUSTS OF 40 MPH
MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT.
RH IS FORECAST TO RECOVER TO 60% OR HIGHER SATURDAY NIGHT
RECOVERNICELY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, THOUGH SLIGHTLY LESS STRONG
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. MIN RH IS FORECAST TO DIP TO 35-40% IN THE I-35
CORRIDOR TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND 45% OR
HIGHER ELSEWHERE AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SUNDAY IN FAR NORTH-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA, SPREADING SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL ALONG AND NORTH OF US HWY 2. RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN
FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME, RANGING FROM 0.05-0.25" ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE IRON RANGE TO LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH OF US HWY
2. SOME POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY OVER 0.25" ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ARROWHEAD.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
DAILY RECORD AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WARM LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWN BELOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, OCTOBER
10TH AND 11TH, WHERE THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE IS WITHIN THREE
DEGREES OF APPROACHING THE RECORD TEMPERATURE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES:
10/10: RECORD FORECAST
KDLH: 82/1938 80
KINL: 80/1955 77
KBRD: 85/1928 82
KHIB: 81/1938 80
KASX: 86/1938 85
10/11: RECORD FORECAST
KASX: 86/2015 83
RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
10/11: RECORD FORECAST
KDLH: 58/1938 57
KBRD: 58/1997 57
KHIB: 55/1938 54
KASX: 58/2015 58
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ121-
143>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
LSZ140.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
LSZ141-142.
DISCUSSION...ROTHSTEIN
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...ROTHSTEIN
FIRE WEATHER...ROTHSTEIN
CLIMATE...ROTHSTEIN
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