918
FXUS63 KDLH 091744
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1244 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING UP TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. HOT WEATHER WITH NEAR-
RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER-70S TO MID-80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
AND NEAR-RECORD WARM LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT.
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY
WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 25-35 MPH, DRY AIR, AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES.
- CLOSER TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WHILE LATEST DATA SHOWS SATURDAY TEMPERATURES HAVE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY, THEY REMAIN CLOSE TO RECORD LEVELS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S. STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH
COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STAY UNSEASONABLY WARM AND BREEZY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING ONLY INTO THE 60S.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL STILL REACH
NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH GUSTY WINDS AND DRY AIR. DESPITE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN RH THIS FORECAST, NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST WILL LEAD TO
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, REACHING THE LOW 60S TO AROUND 70F, AND
SOME 50S IN THE ARROWHEAD DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. WINDS SHOULD BE
ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT FRIDAY, WITH PM GUSTS TO 15-25 MPH,
STEADILY INCREASING OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
FOR SATURDAY, THE NORTHLAND WILL BE WEDGED BETWEEN AN ANOMALOUS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED JUST TO OUR EAST AND TROUGHING
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE DAKOTAS WILL HAVE A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OUT AHEAD OF IT, PUMPING UNUSUALLY WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
INTO THE NORTHLAND RELATIVE TO THIS TIME OF YEAR. GIVEN STRONG,
SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S,
BEING WARMEST IN THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WIND
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED, AS WELL AS MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DIPPING TO THE LOW TO UPPER 30S (%) IN THE
WARMEST AREAS AND UPPER 30S TO 40S (%) ELSEWHERE. THIS
COMBINATION OF FAIRLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH VERY
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. WE STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BREEZY WARM,
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING. AS A RESULT, LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
MANY AREAS SHOULDN'T COOL OFF MUCH BELOW THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S EXCEPT IN FAR NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SEVERAL LOCATIONS
COULD APPROACH RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND
RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT (SEE THE
"CLIMATE" SECTION BELOW).
ON SUNDAY, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY BE MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TIMING OF
THE FRONT, THE I-35 CORRIDOR INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SHOULD
STILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES TOP OUT AROUND 80F TO THE LOW 80S.
MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S, WITH
SOME 60S IN FAR NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH QUICKER. GIVEN LATER COLD FRONT TIMING IN THE I-35
CORRIDOR TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, THE WARM TEMPERATURES, FAIRLY
LOW MIN RH, AND SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK:
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT/TROUGHING IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND SITUATED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. FAR NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
COULD SEE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING, WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN MOVING ACROSS AREAS
MAINLY NORTH OF US HWY 2 (20-50% CHANCE) SUNDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR APPEARS TO LINGER IN THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AREAS THAT DO SEE RAIN LIKELY SEE LESS THAN
0.10".
A SECOND TROUGH ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A LITTLE BIT BETTER SCATTERED, LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHLAND (40-70%, HIGHEST IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN INTO THE
ARROWHEAD). REGARDLESS, ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM
LITTLE TO NOTHING SOUTH OF US HWY 2 TO 0.10-0.20" IN NORTH-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO THE ARROWHEAD. TOTAL AMOUNTS FOR LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT AROUND 0.25"
IN NORTHERN AREAS, WITH DECREASING AMOUNTS WITH SOUTHWARD
EXTENT TO ALMOST NO ACCUMULATING RAINFALL SOUTH OF US HWY 2.
MUCH COOLER, MORE SEASONAL OCTOBER TEMPERATURES RETURN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE LOW
30S NORTH TO LOW 40S SOUTH AND LOW TO UPPER 30S TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
ONCE RAIN CHANCES END LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK:
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS FORECAST A
DIGGING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY TO EJECT
INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST SOMETIME IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THE SURFACE, EXPECT LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
COLORADO VICINITY LATE TUESDAY TO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. THERE
STILL REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES WITH THIS MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK SYSTEM. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE APPEARANCE OF STRONGER SYNOPTIC
FORCING, MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POTENTIAL WOULD BE IN STORE.
SEASONAL FALL TEMPERATURES ALSO LINGER INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK, AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THEN, EXPECT SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP
AT BRD/HIB/INL LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KTS LINGERING INTO THE MID-EVENING BEFORE GUSTS DROP
OFF OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OUT OF THE
SOUTH BY MID-SATURDAY MORNING AGAIN, BECOMING EVEN STRONGER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO EXPECT LLWS DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR MOST TERMINALS ASIDE
FROM BRD.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS
THE REGION, PRODUCING GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVES BUILDING TO
2 TO 5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL NEARSHORE
ZONES STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES EXPECTED.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY
WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. ON SATURDAY, NEAR-RECORD HEAT
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S AND STRONG SOUTH WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL YIELD RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 32
TO 45 PERCENT, CREATING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. SIMILAR DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
MAINTAIN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREATS IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER AIR AND
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
DAILY RECORD AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WARM LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWN BELOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, OCTOBER
10TH AND 11TH, WHERE THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE IS WITHIN THREE
DEGREES OF APPROACHING THE RECORD TEMPERATURE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES:
10/10: RECORD FORECAST
KDLH: 82/1938 79
KINL: 80/1955 76
KBRD: 85/1928 82
KHIB: 81/1938 79
KASX: 86/1938 84
10/11: RECORD FORECAST
KASX: 86/2015 82
RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
10/11: RECORD FORECAST
KDLH: 58/1938 60
KBRD: 58/1997 61
KHIB: 55/1938 58
KASX: 58/2015 62
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
143>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT
SATURDAY FOR LSZ140.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM CDT
SATURDAY FOR LSZ141-142.
UPDATE...KML
DISCUSSION...ROTHSTEIN
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...KML
FIRE WEATHER...KML
CLIMATE...KML
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