347
FXUS63 KDLH 101152
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
652 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND 80S.
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35 MPH, DRY AIR, AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.
- CLOSER TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY:
QUITE THE TRANSITION FOR TODAY WITH SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES MAKING
A RETURN. AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP TO OUR EAST AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION LEADING TO
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION SURGING ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND. WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 35 MPH AND OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARING RECORD BREAKING VALUES IN THE 80S. SOME
OF THE CAMS ARE PAINTING SOME WEAK RETURNS IN MODEL REFLECITIVTY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HOWEVER, WE ARE
KEEPING POPS BELOW 10% AS SOUNDINGS SHOW AND IMMENSE DRY LAYER
IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT RAIN WOULD EVAPORATE UPON ENTERING. THIS
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH WINDS
WEAKENING A BIT BUT OUR RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE BROKEN AS CURRENT GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 60S.
SUNDAY:
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PACING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
INCREDIBLY SLOW AND NEAR STATIONARY AT TIMES. DUE TO THIS SLOW
PROGRESSION HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION. AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT, NAMELY FAR NORTHERN MN WILL SEE
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S. AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTH WE WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE. SOUNDING PROFILES
STILL SHOW A LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT WILL NEED TO BE WORKED
OVER BEFORE RAIN CAN REACH THE SURFACE.
MONDAY:
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVES ON MONDAY AS A SECONDARY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE UPPER MIDWEST. LACK OF A DEEP
MOISTURE SOURCE IS KEEPING PWATS AROUND 1.25" AND MINIMAL
INSTABILITY WILL ALSO KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT BAY. OVERALL RAIN
TOTALS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE AROUND 0.05-0.15" WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT WE WILL SEE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
THE REGION WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 50 AND 60S.
TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK:
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND STARTS TO
DEPART ON WEDNESDAY. QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
30S. HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND BEYOND THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE 00Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE. CLUSTER ANALYSIS
SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH THAT DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY
IN THE WEEK. BUT ITS PROGRESSION INTO THE MIDWEST REMAINS
UNCERTAIN WITH A GEFS DOMINATE CLUSTERS SUGGESTING AN ACTIVE
STRETCH OF WEATHER AS THE TROUGHING SLINGS THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST. BUT THE EPS FAMILY HIGHLIGHTS A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHLAND THAT WOULD SHUNT THE ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR TO SEE IF A BETTER CONSENSUS EMERGES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET REMAINED IN PLACE
OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING. DIURNAL HEATING WILL MIX INTO THE LOWER
PORTIONS OF THE JET RAISING WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WHILE ALSO
ALLOWING THE CORE OF THE JET TO PUSH FARTHER ALOFT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. LLWS WILL BECOME A CONCERN AGAIN
TONIGHT AS THE STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY JET GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
GUSTY EAST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE STILL LEADING TO WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL 10 AM. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN
TO OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY. MORE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
WINDS AND WAVES TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING BRIEFLY, BUT STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S
AND MIN RHS FALLING INTO THE 30S. PORTIONS OF THE ST. CROIX
RIVER VALLEY MAY SEE MIN RH BETWEEN 25-30% THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY BREEZY TODAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-35 MPH
OUT OF THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS APPROACH THRESHOLDS FOR RED FLAG
WARNINGS IN THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND PORTIONS OF NW WI AND WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING IN CASE RHS DROP FASTER THAN
FORECAST. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF NE MN. WINDS WILL WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AND A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASED CLOUD COVER NEAR THE FRONT WILL KEEP RHS A
LITTLE HIGHER, BUT NW WI WILL LARGELY STAY SUNNY WITH MIN RHS
LIKELY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
RETURN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
DAILY RECORD AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WARM LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWN BELOW FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY, OCTOBER
10TH AND 11TH, WHERE THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE IS WITHIN THREE
DEGREES OF APPROACHING THE RECORD TEMPERATURE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES:
10/10: RECORD FORECAST
KDLH: 82/1938 82
KINL: 80/1955 78
KBRD: 85/1928 84
KHIB: 81/1938 81
KASX: 86/1938 86
10/11: RECORD FORECAST
KASX: 86/2015 84
WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
10/11: RECORD FORECAST
KDLH: 58/1938 61
KBRD: 58/1997 60
KHIB: 55/1938 60
KASX: 58/2015 64
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT
SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-145>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...BRITT
FIRE WEATHER...HUYCK/BRITT
CLIMATE...BRITT/HUYCK
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