772
FXUS63 KDLH 101744
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1244 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND 80S.
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35 MPH, DRY AIR, AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.
- CLOSER TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY:
QUITE THE TRANSITION FOR TODAY WITH SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES MAKING
A RETURN. AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP TO OUR EAST AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION LEADING TO
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION SURGING ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND. WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 35 MPH AND OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARING RECORD BREAKING VALUES IN THE 80S. SOME
OF THE CAMS ARE PAINTING SOME WEAK RETURNS IN MODEL REFLECITIVTY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HOWEVER, WE ARE
KEEPING POPS BELOW 10% AS SOUNDINGS SHOW AND IMMENSE DRY LAYER
IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT RAIN WOULD EVAPORATE UPON ENTERING. THIS
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH WINDS
WEAKENING A BIT BUT OUR RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE BROKEN AS CURRENT GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 60S.
SUNDAY:
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PACING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
INCREDIBLY SLOW AND NEAR STATIONARY AT TIMES. DUE TO THIS SLOW
PROGRESSION HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION. AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT, NAMELY FAR NORTHERN MN WILL SEE
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S. AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTH WE WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE. SOUNDING PROFILES
STILL SHOW A LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT WILL NEED TO BE WORKED
OVER BEFORE RAIN CAN REACH THE SURFACE.
MONDAY:
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVES ON MONDAY AS A SECONDARY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE UPPER MIDWEST. LACK OF A DEEP
MOISTURE SOURCE IS KEEPING PWATS AROUND 1.25" AND MINIMAL
INSTABILITY WILL ALSO KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT BAY. OVERALL RAIN
TOTALS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE AROUND 0.05-0.15" WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT WE WILL SEE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
THE REGION WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 50 AND 60S.
TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK:
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND STARTS TO
DEPART ON WEDNESDAY. QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
30S. HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND BEYOND THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE 00Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE. CLUSTER ANALYSIS
SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH THAT DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY
IN THE WEEK. BUT ITS PROGRESSION INTO THE MIDWEST REMAINS
UNCERTAIN WITH A GEFS DOMINATE CLUSTERS SUGGESTING AN ACTIVE
STRETCH OF WEATHER AS THE TROUGHING SLINGS THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST. BUT THE EPS FAMILY HIGHLIGHTS A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHLAND THAT WOULD SHUNT THE ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR TO SEE IF A BETTER CONSENSUS EMERGES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE AT INL THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND VIRGA
DEVELOPED OVER NW MN AND NW ONTARIO OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE
SHOWERS ARE VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.
WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE
VCTS TO INL. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE LOW- LEVEL JET OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR IN THE LOWEST
2KFT WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR RETURNS
TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES
FROM THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS
CREEPS INTO THE FORECAST SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN IFR
CEILINGS IS HIGHEST AT INL. HIB, BRD, DLH, AND HYR ALL HAVE A
20-30% CHANCE OF SEEING IFR CEILINGS SUNDAY MORNING, SO HAVE
LEFT IFR CONDITIONS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. LLWS WILL END
AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS ADVANCES EASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTH
SHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE COOL WATER
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AIR TEMPERATURES
OVER NW WI AND PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL MN WILL CREATE A STABLE
LAYER OVER THE LAKE AWAY FROM THE SHORE. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE AREAS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH SHORE FROM DULUTH TO SILVER BAY IF WIND GUSTS OF 20-25
KNOTS CAN MATERIALIZE THERE. WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY
MORNING. A COOL FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE NORTHLAND
FOR MONDAY. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND STRENGTHEN MAKING
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS FOR SMALLER VESSELS. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE
OF GALES OF 35-40 KNOTS OVER THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ARM OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WAVES WIL BUILD
TO 3 TO 11 FEET WITH THE HIGHEST WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE OUTER
APOSTLE ISLANDS AND FROM OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR. WIND GUSTS
GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE DURING THAT TIME. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND
COOL WATER TEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS WIND AND WAVES IS
POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING
WHILE RH VALUES RECOVER TO 65-95% OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD SUNDAY AND WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES,
COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. AREAS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA EAST INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LESS GUSTY. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE ST. CROIX
VALLEY IN NW WI TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EAST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE NORTHLAND WHICH WILL PROVIDE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HINCKLEY TO MERCER
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. CLOUDY
SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS LESS FAVORABLE FOR
FIRE NORTH OF THAT LINE. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD EXPAND OVER
ALL OF THE NORTHLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
DAILY RECORD AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WARM LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWN BELOW FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY, OCTOBER
10TH AND 11TH, WHERE THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE IS WITHIN THREE
DEGREES OF APPROACHING THE RECORD TEMPERATURE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES:
10/10: RECORD FORECAST
KDLH: 82/1938 82
KINL: 80/1955 79
KBRD: 85/1928 84
KHIB: 81/1938 81
KASX: 86/1938 86
10/11: RECORD FORECAST
KASX: 86/2015 85
WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
10/11: RECORD FORECAST
KDLH: 58/1938 60
KBRD: 58/1997 63
KHIB: 55/1938 60
KASX: 58/2015 64
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-145>148-
150.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...HUYCK
FIRE WEATHER...HUYCK
CLIMATE...BRITT/HUYCK
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