435
FXUS63 KDLH 110524
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1224 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS AGAIN SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S IN KOOCHICHING COUNTY TO THE MIDDLE 80S
IN THE ST. CROIX VALLEY.
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35 MPH, DRY AIR, AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.
- CLOSER TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
SYNOPSIS:
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CONUS FEATURED A TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
INCLUDED A TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE
WEST OF THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS. AN SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL JET WAS LOCATED OVER MINNESOTA, NORTHERN WISCONSIN, AND
NORTHWEST ONTARIO. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EASTWARD FROM THE
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA WHILE A COOL FRONT ARCED
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS, WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING, STRETCHED FROM
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE 850 MB LOW-LEVEL JET.
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
DESPITE A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR BETWEEN CLOUD BASES AND THE
GROUND, SPRINKLES WERE REACHING THE GROUND IN SPOTS. EXPECT THAT
TREND TO CONTINUE IN RESPONSE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN
THE 700-500 MB LAYER. SHOWERS WITH BRIEF LIGHTNING FLASHES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY DEPART NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TO THE NORTH. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DECOUPLING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN THIS
EVENING AS IT PROPAGATES FARTHER EASTWARD AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WARM SECTOR NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS
FORECAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 80S FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO
THE TWIN PORTS AND OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE US-2 CORRIDOR BY 7 AM
MONDAY.
MONDAY:
MONDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A TRANSITION DAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE DAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF FEATURE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE OVER EAST-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING
BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES OVER THOSE AREAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
PERSIST OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
50S ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE LOW TO UPPER 70S SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM HINCKLEY TO MERCER. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE IN RESPONSE TO THE
FAVORABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL LOBES OF VORTICITY
PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK:
SHOWERS TAPER OFF TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS THURSDAY AND BEYOND PERSISTS.
THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FEATURE TWO DISTINCT
EVOLUTIONS. THE GFS/GEFS FEATURES AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. THE ECMWF/EPS GENERATES A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CLUSTER ANALYSIS SEEMS TO LEAN TOWARD THE
ECMWF/EPS SOLUTIONS AS OF THIS MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET ENGULFING THE REGION. WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
SLOWLY END WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE JET
SHIFTS EAST. A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TODAY WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO OUT THE NORTH BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY HEADING
SOUTH.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTH
SHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE COOL WATER
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AIR TEMPERATURES
OVER NW WI AND PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL MN WILL CREATE A STABLE
LAYER OVER THE LAKE AWAY FROM THE SHORE. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE AREAS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH SHORE FROM DULUTH TO SILVER BAY IF WIND GUSTS OF 20-25
KNOTS CAN MATERIALIZE THERE. WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY
MORNING. A COOL FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE NORTHLAND
FOR MONDAY. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND STRENGTHEN MAKING
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS FOR SMALLER VESSELS. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE
OF GALES OF 35-40 KNOTS OVER THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ARM OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WAVES WIL BUILD
TO 3 TO 11 FEET WITH THE HIGHEST WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE OUTER
APOSTLE ISLANDS AND FROM OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR. WIND GUSTS
GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE DURING THAT TIME. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND
COOL WATER TEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS WIND AND WAVES IS
POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING
WHILE RH VALUES RECOVER TO 65-95% OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD SUNDAY AND WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES,
COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. AREAS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA EAST INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LESS GUSTY. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE ST. CROIX
VALLEY IN NW WI TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EAST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE NORTHLAND WHICH WILL PROVIDE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HINCKLEY TO MERCER
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. CLOUDY
SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS LESS FAVORABLE FOR
FIRE NORTH OF THAT LINE. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD EXPAND OVER
ALL OF THE NORTHLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
140-145>148-150.
DISCUSSION...HUYCK
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...HUYCK
FIRE WEATHER...HUYCK
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