685
FXUS63 KDLH 111810
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
110 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.
- CLOSER TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING LATE TODAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY:
ANOTHER WARM ONE ON TAP FOR TODAY AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSIST FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. WHILE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
AS STRONG TODAY WITH WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED WE WILL STILL SEE THOSE
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE NORTHLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION INTO TONIGHT. THE PACING OF THE FRONT
WILL BE INCREDIBLY SLOW AND NEAR STATIONARY AT TIMES. AS THE
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH WE WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE.
SOUNDING PROFILES STILL SHOW A LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT WILL
NEED TO BE WORKED OVER BEFORE RAIN CAN REACHES THE SURFACE. THE BEST
CHANCES (20-40%) FOR RAIN AT THIS TIME WILL LIKELY STAY CONFINED TO
NORTHERN MN.
MONDAY:
THE NORTHLAND FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST MEET WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. A FEW IMPULSES ROUNDING THE WEAK UPPER RIDGING
ALOFT COULD INSTIGATE SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN MN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING ARRIVES IN THE LATTER
HALF OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. WEAK INSTABILITY CLOSER TO A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO CENTRAL WI COULD PRODUCE A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MONDAY EVENING ACROSS NW WI. OVERALL,
EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN TOTALS LARGELY BETWEEN 0.10-0.25" WITH RAIN
EXITING TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK:
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND STARTS TO
DEPART ON WEDNESDAY. QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
30S. HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND BEYOND THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE 00Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE. CLUSTER ANALYSIS
THAT FAVORS THE EPS STILL WANTS TO PLOT A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THAT WOULD ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING TO DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CLUSTERS MORE
ALIGNED WITH THE GEFS HAVE A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THAT WOULD
SUGGEST AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
LEVERAGING THE ECAIFS AND THE AIGFS MAY BE THE BETTER OPTION IN
THE EXTENDED AS THEY ALIGN FAIRLY WELL AND HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THEIR PICTURE. IT IS SLIGHTLY MORE AGREEMENT
WITH THE GEFS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LESS DOMINATE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS MANITOBA AND
ONTARIO BRINGING A RAINY PERIOD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR
NOW, WILL STICK WITH THE NBM WHICH CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT POPS
OF 30-50% THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
MOST LOCATIONS, AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
NORTHLAND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE COLD FRONT IS NEAR
INL, WITH IFR CIG HEIGHTS AND NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
MAINLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. EXPECT TO SEE RADAR RETURNS
FURTHER SOUTH, BUT DRY AIR WILL LIKELY ERODE PRECIPITATION, WITH
ONLY A SPRINKLE OR TWO POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTHEAST MN.
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHWARD, LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT, WITH CIGS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AT MORE TERMINAL, AND REMAIN BREEZY. STRONG WINDS OFF
THE LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS TO 25KTS AT DLH. LOWER CIGS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
INCREASE IN SPEEDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GALES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THIS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH A GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTH SHORE AND MOST OF THE SOUTH SHORE. HIGH RES GUIDANCE WOULD
SUGGEST THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE GALES ARE FROM THE SILVER BAY
DOWN THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS AND AROUND TO THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS.
GALES ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS AND
WAVE HEIGHTS WOULD STILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL VESSELS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
ANOTHER DAY OF SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. NOT
NEARLY AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY WITH WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
20-25 MPH. YESTERDAY DID SEE SOME OVERACHIEVING MIN RHS WITH SOME
ISOLATED SPOTS DROPPING TO AROUND 25% IN THE BRAINERD LAKE REGION.
CAN'T FULLY RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SPOTS ACHIEVING THIS AGAIN WITH
THE ABUNDANCE OF SUN BUT THIS WOULD LARGELY BE ISOLATED TO NW WI. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT AN
INCREDIBLY SLOW PACE WITH WINDS SLOWLY TURNING TO OUT OF THE NORTH
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN MN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY WITH TOTALS LARGELY BETWEEN 0.10-0.25"
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ140>147-150.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...BRITT
FIRE WEATHER...BRITT
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