600
FXUS63 KDLH 111944
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
244 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.10-0.40
INCH.
- CLOSER TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR CRANE LAKE SOUTHWESTWARD TO
NEAR BRAINERD THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS BREEZY AT TIMES WITH A MIX OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. BEHIND THE FRONT, LOW STRATUS AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, WITH
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY NORTH WINDS. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO
THE SOUTHEAST, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR
THE SHORELINE. CANNOT RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT,
MAINLY NEAR THE BORDER AND OVER THE ARROWHEAD, BUT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA, CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. COOLER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND
THE FRONT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NEAR THE BORDER
TO AROUND 60F FROM SIREN EASTWARD TO PARK FALLS.
MONDAY:
TOMORROW MORNING, THE FRONT SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS NORTHWEST WI,
DRAPED UNDERNEATH SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THERE COULD BE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, BUT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW
EVENING AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE CRAVES OUT THE RIDGE SITTING TO
OUR SOUTH. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING BETTER DYNAMICS AND LAPSE
RATES AS TEMPS COOL ALOFT. HOWEVER, WARM ADVECTION KEEPS THE
AIRMASS CAPPED. WHILE SHEAR VALUES ARE 40-50KTS, MUCAPE VALUES
ARE MEAGER AT AROUND 300 J/KG OR LESS. THERE IS A NON- ZERO
CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM BRAINERD TO DULUTH SOUTHWARD BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A FEW NON-SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS
POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK:
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR MID WEEK, WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
50S AND 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S. THE NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVES THURSDAY, AS A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OPENS UP AS IT
LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DROPPING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH EACH OTHER AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE, SHOWING A DOUBLE SURFACE LOW SET UP, WITH MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. THERE REMAINS TIMING
DIFFERENCES, WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION SPREADING MORE TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE NORTHLAND. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
MOST LOCATIONS, AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
NORTHLAND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE COLD FRONT IS NEAR
INL, WITH IFR CIG HEIGHTS AND NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
MAINLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. EXPECT TO SEE RADAR RETURNS
FURTHER SOUTH, BUT DRY AIR WILL LIKELY ERODE PRECIPITATION, WITH
ONLY A SPRINKLE OR TWO POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTHEAST MN.
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHWARD, LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT, WITH CIGS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AT MORE TERMINAL, AND REMAIN BREEZY. STRONG WINDS OFF
THE LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS TO 25KTS AT DLH. LOWER CIGS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WINDS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENING. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT, ON BOTH THE NORTH SHORE AND SOUTH SHORE. HIGH RES
GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE GALES ARE
FROM THE SILVER BAY DOWN THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS AND AROUND TO
THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT GALES ALONG OTHER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE. GALES ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WOULD STILL
REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL VESSELS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE
EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHWEST WI, WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES, RHS COULD FALL INTO
THE MID 30S FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. WINDS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ARE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, WITH GUSTS TO 20MPH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
WITH THE SLOW NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR
THE SHORES OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD, BY MONDAY
EVENING, WITH TOTALS BETWEEN 0.10-0.30". DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ140>147-150.
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...HA
FIRE WEATHER...HA
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