053
FXUS63 KDLH 121957
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
257 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ENTERING FROM THE WEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXITING TOMORROW MORNING. A FEW STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES INTO NW WI THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
- QUIET AND COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
A STALLED FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR THE TWIN CITIES EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WI AND ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS FRONT GUSTY EAST WINDS ARE BLOWING
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FLOW
OFF THE LAKE, PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. STARTING TO SEE MORE LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE
ARROWHEAD, AS LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND A MID
LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD. FURTHER TO OUR WEST, MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. CANNOT
RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, MAINLY FROM BRAINERD EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHWEST WI. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MEAGER, WITH
LIMITED MUCAPE ABOVE A CAP BUT IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE. IF A
STRONGER STORM DOES DEVELOP, SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE BETWEEN
0.10-0.50 INCH, AND DEPENDENT ON WHERE MORE PERSISTENT HEAVIER
RAIN FALLS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY:
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TUESDAY, WITH SHOWERS
ENDING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA, AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS AROUND BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR MID
MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES WEDNESDAY,
KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH MORE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 30S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY:
NOT MANY CHANGES NOTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK SYSTEM. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ONE LOW EJECTING OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES STARTING THURSDAY MORNING, PUSHING
MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. ANOTHER LOW
WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND WILL PICK UP
THE PLAINS LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE MIDWEST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE TWO SYSTEMS, THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE PLAINS WILL BE MAINLY
TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE PLAINS LOW FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH THE CANADIAN LOW CURRENTLY LAGGING A BIT
BEHIND AND MAINLY RESULT IN COLD ADVECTION SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT.
WEEKEND:
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWS WILL MERGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES LEADING TO A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHLAND. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS WITH AMPLE COLD AIR POURING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL LEAD TO A
VERY CHILLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. DRY AIR WILL ALSO
DOMINANT MOST THE REGION LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGHS CONTINUING TO BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. THE DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MAY PROMPT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
CURRENT OBS SHOW A MIX OF LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE (WITH REDUCED
VIS) WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION
OF THE AREA. CIGS ARE GENERALLY BELOW 1KFT AT FORECAST
TERMINALS. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRATUS IS LIFT NORTHWARD, AND
COULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT HYR SOON. OTHERWISE, LOW CIGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF A STALLED FRONT,
TO OUR SOUTH. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS WELL, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR TS AT BRD AND HYR. WITH MOIST EASTERLY FETCH OFF THE LAKE,
EXPECT LOW CIGS AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE AT DLH THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON, UNTIL SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA. NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS OF 20-30KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING, BEFORE
WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH AND DIMINISH.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS. SEE THE LATEST MWW FOR THE LATEST
DETAILS ON TIMING AND WAVE HEIGHTS. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER
OFF TONIGHT, BUT HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL VESSELS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WAVE HEIGHTS WILL TAKE
SOME ADDITIONAL TIME TO DECREASE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MOST OF
THE WORK WEEK. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT,
AND MIN RHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO START DRYING OUT AGAIN UNTIL
FRIDAY. THE NEXT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WINDS INCREASE AND MIN RHS DROP INTO THE
30S AND POSSIBLY 20S FOR SATURDAY.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
148.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>147-150.
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...HA
FIRE WEATHER...HA
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