854
FXUS63 KDTX 161637
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1137 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THROUGH NOON TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 4 INCHES. HIGHEST TOTALS MORE LIKELY IN THE THUMB.
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-35 MPH DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
- MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.
AVIATION
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS (SUSTAINED ~15 KNOTS GUSTING ~30 KNOTS)
THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS, WITH MOSTLY HIGH
MVFR, AND EVENTUALLY SNEAKING INTO LOW VFR THIS EVENING. STEEPENING
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME LAKE EFFECT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, WITH A
DUSTING OF SNOW. ACTIVITY WILL BE NARROW AND LIMITED COVERAGE, BUT
FNT/PTK LIKELY STANDING THE BEST SHOT TO BE IMPACTED. STILL POTENTIAL
FOR FLURRIES TONIGHT, BUT LAKE MICHIGAN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO MISS TAFS. HOWEVER, WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND WILL REMAIN
PERSISTENT, AND IT LOOKS LIKELY SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ACTIVITY/FLURRIES WILL ARRIVE BY LATE MONDAY MORNING, WHICH LIKELY
SENDS CIGS BACK INTO HIGH MVFR/BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR.
FOR DTW...THREW IN PROB30 FOR A SNOW SHOWER IN THE 21-01Z WINDOW,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO A DUSTING. OTHERWISE, SNOW ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
OCCUR WEST OF THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY, AND FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY RETURNING LATE MONDAY MORNING WITH
WESTERLY WINDS AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* MEDIUM IN CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING, LOW
TONIGHT, AND MEDIUM TOMORROW.
* HIGH IN PRECIP TYPE BEING SNOW.
* MODERATE FOR WESTERLY CROSSWIND THRESHOLD BEING MET THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
DISCUSSION...
LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAS REALLY DIALED BACK THE SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL THIS MORNING AS IT APPEARS THE SCENARIO IN WHICH THE TN
VALLEY CONVECTION DISRUPTS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO SOUTHEAST MI
IS PLAYING OUT. THIS ALSO DISPLACES THE MAIN LOW TRACK FURTHER EAST,
PULLING THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOW FURTHER TO THE EAST AS WELL. THUS,
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUT THE HIGHER END SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 7+
INCHES OR GREATER OUT OF REACH. LATEST 00Z DTX RAOB LAST EVENING
SHOWED A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE DGZ WITH SOME FORECAST
SOUNDINGS MAINTAINING SOME OF THIS DRY AIR THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS
DOESN'T BODE WELL FOR GREAT WIDESPREAD SNOW PRODUCTION AND BRINGS
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED POCKETS OF DRIZZLE TO OCCASIONALLY
MIX IN THIS MORNING IN GAPS OF WEAK SNOW RATES. THERE WILL STILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW WITH ANY BANDING THAT CAN SET UP
THIS MORNING AS THE BETTER SYSTEM RELATIVE ASCENT IN THE MID LEVELS
(700MB FGEN) ARRIVES BETWEEN NOW AND 10 AM. THERE IS AT LEAST
EVIDENCE OF THESE FLARE UPS ON RADAR OCCURING ALONG THE IRISH HILLS
HERE AT PRESS TIME. ASSOCIATED HOURLY SNOW RATE TRENDS HAVE BEEN
DECREASING THIS MORNING, BUT PERIODS OF HALF INCH PER HOUR RATES
REMAIN POSSIBLE. CONSENSUS LEANS TOWARDS TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS MOSTLY IN
THE 0.15" TO 0.25" RANGE WITH EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA POSSIBLY UP
TOWARDS 0.3". SNOW RATIOS LEANING MORE TOWARDS A TYPICAL 10:1 TO
13:1 IN THIS SCENARIO AND WILL RESULT IN SNOWFALL TOTALS THROUGH
THIS MORNING MOSTLY IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE. A LOWER PROBABILITY
EXISTS FOR ISOLATED 5 INCH TOTALS, MAINLY ALONG THE SHORELINES OF
THE THUMB OR POSSIBLY ALONG THE IRISH HILLS BASED ON MORNING RADAR
TRENDS. HAVE DECIDED TO DROP THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND CARRY AN
AREA-WIDE ADVISORY. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOULD PEAL AWAY BY NOON, SO
WILL MOVE THE ENDING TIME OF THE ADVISORY TO NOON AS WELL.
SYSTEM SNOWFALL TRANSITIONS TO A LAKE EFFECT PATTERN DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW AS WINDS TURN FROM THE NORTH TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS PRODUCING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A BUMP IN SURFACE INSTABILITY/STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. EXPECT DECREASING COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO
TONIGHT.
LOWER LEVEL FLOW USHERS IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BY MONDAY AS 850 MB
TEMPS FALL TO -20C TO -22C AND HOLD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
HIGHS MONDAY TOP OUT IN THE TEENS WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING FALLING TO AROUND 0 DEGREES F WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING TO
NEGATIVE 10F OR BELOW. MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON
MONDAY OFFERS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE POP FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. GREATER
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TUESDAY LOOKS TO CUT OFF THE LAKE
INFLUENCE AND BRING DRIER CONDITIONS AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE MID TO LATE WEEK.
MARINE...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PATH FROM KENTUCKY INTO THE
CONTINENTAL NORTHEAST TODAY, TRACKING JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND
LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF
WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER, FREEZING SPRAY CONCERNS, AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WHICH INCLUDE ISOLATED GALE POTENTIAL.
WIND DIRECTION WILL BACK NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY
WHILE CONCURRENTLY INCREASING WIND SPEED AND WIND GUST MAGNITUDE.
SUSTAIN WINDS WILL PEAK BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUST POTENTIAL
UP TO 35 KNOTS, PRIMARILY ACROSS LAKE HURON AND INTO THE SAGINAW
BAY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE GALE POTENTIAL, AND
THUS HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE WATCH. BEING SAID, THERE REMAINS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 33 KNOTS WILL PERSIST BETWEEN 12Z
TO 21Z TODAY, WITH ISOLATED GUST POTENTIAL TO GALES. THESE STRONG
GUSTS INITIALLY EXPAND ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE HURON AND THE OUTER
SAGINAW BAY THIS MORNING, BEFORE PIVOTING INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON BASIN BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW.
WIDESPREAD SNOW, HEAVY AT TIMES, WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY, THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AND SOUTH
INTO LAKE ERIE. ARCTIC AIR EXPANDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY CONDITIONS
WHILE ENHANCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND FREEZING SPRAY. ELEVATED GUSTS
AOA 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR LHZ361>363.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR LHZ462-463.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....SF
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......AM
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AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
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