998
FXUS63 KDTX 210453
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1153 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO FREEZING BY SUNDAY, AND UP TO AROUND 40
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
COLD AIR PRECONDITIONED OFF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS HELPED MVFR STRATOCU
AND A FEW FLURRIES BUILD AGGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE EVENING. THE CLOUDS ARE GUIDED BY CONTINUED
WNW WIND AS MISSOURI HIGH PRESSURE REACHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
RENEWED MVFR STRATOCU EXPANSION IS PROMOTED BY NOCTURNAL STABILITY
COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE TO DUCT CLOUDS INLAND AND
SOUTHWARD. CLOUD LAYER WIND FROM THE NW HAS ONLY PROVED TO BE A
LIMITING FACTOR ON COVERAGE ACROSS THE SHORTER FETCH OF CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE A CORRIDOR OF CLEARING STAYS WEST OF THE TERMINAL
CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE INFLUENCE OF WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY BREAKS OF MORE OPTIMISTIC CLOUD
TRENDS IN LATER UPDATES FOR LATE TONIGHT AND IN THE MORNING. A
BACKING WIND FIELD TOWARD THE WEST THEN DIRECTS ADDITIONAL CLOUDS
AND FLURRIES INTO SE MI FROM LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON TO
MAINTAIN MVFR CEILING INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* HIGH FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... 1000-850MB WIND
STREAMLINES FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT LAKE MOISTURE
OVER SE MI, MAINTAINING PERIODIC STRATUS UNDER THE ALREADY
ESTABLISHED 800MB INVERSION. PERIODS OF FLURRIES TO VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TO SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET,
BOLSTERED BY THE SHALLOW (0-1KM) NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES. DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT,
SHRINKING MOISTURE DEPTHS AND ENDING SNOW CHANCES. CLOUDS WILL BE
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD GIVEN THE DELICATE
BALANCE BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING INVERSION OVER SHALLOW MOISTURE
ADVECTION VS. THE DRYING TREND WHICH HAS THE ABILITY TO SCOUR OUT
CLOUD COVERAGE. REGARDLESS, THIS WOULD ONLY RESULT IN MINOR
TEMPERATURE IMPACTS OVERNIGHT, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SINGLE
DIGIT LOWS UNDER CLEAR SKIES (COMPARED TO LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER). MODEL OUTPUT HAS BEEN OVERLY BULLISH ON CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON RELATIVE TO WHAT IS PRESENTLY ONGOING, SO DRY
AIR AND LACK OF DAYLIGHT MAY TIP THE EDGE TOWARDS A CLEAR NIGHT
OVERNIGHT.
AN EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CENTER OVER THE OZARKS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH EXTENDING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SOME FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
METRO REGION DOWN TO THE MI/OH BORDER WITH BACKED FLOW TO THE WEST,
BUT OTHERWISE MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 20S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WASH OUT OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND WILL TURN MID-LEVEL FLOW A LITTLE MORE ZONAL OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO WORK OVER
MICHIGAN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WHERE
TEMPERATURE HIGHS PEAK IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THERE ARE NO
DEFINITIVE PRECIPITATION TRENDS IN THE FORECAST, HOWEVER, THIS SETUP
BRINGS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES OVER OR NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES, BRINGING SOME LOW END CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MIDWEEK PERIOD. GIVEN HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S AND LOWS RANGING BACK DOWN
TO BELOW FREEZING, P-TYPES CAN RANGE FROM SNOW TO RAIN OR A WINTRY
MIX, PENDING THE TIMING OF THE POTENTIAL WAVES.
MARINE...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON, CAUSING NORTHWEST WIND TO INCREASE TO THE 20
TO 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUING
OVER LAKE HURON. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MISSOURI PASSES OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY CAUSING WINDS TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE PASSES EAST AND MILDER AIR BEGINS
TO WORK IN. WIND MAGNITUDE AGAIN LOOKS TO TOP OUT AROUND 20 TO 25
KNOTS, BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME 30+ KNOT GUSTS OVER PARTS
OF LAKE HURON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN DROP INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT
AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......TF
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