781
FGUS73 KDTX 271748
ESFDTX
MIC017-049-091-093-099-111-115-125-145-147-155-157-161-163-061200-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1250 PM EST THU FEB 27 2025
..2025 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
FOR THE MAJOR RIVERS IN THE SAGINAW RIVER BASIN AND THE CLINTON
...ROUGE...HURON AND RAISIN RIVER BASINS...
THE DETROIT/PONTIAC OFFICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCE HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR ALL
THE MODEL LOCATIONS IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED BASINS. AHPS ENABLES
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC
RIVER OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET
AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX.
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 03/03/2025 - 06/01/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
PINE RIVER
MIDLAND 12.0 14.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
TITTABAWASSEE RIVER
MIDLAND 24.0 25.0 28.0 7 21 6 20 <5 7
SHIAWASSEE RIVER
OWOSSO 7.0 9.0 10.0 19 21 <5 <5 <5 <5
KEARSLEY CREEK
DAVISON 10.0 11.0 12.0 12 17 <5 <5 <5 <5
FLINT RIVER
FLINT 13.0 15.0 17.0 6 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
CASS RIVER
CASS CITY 14.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
VASSAR 14.0 15.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
FRANKENMUTH 17.0 20.0 25.0 35 44 6 12 <5 <5
SAGINAW RIVER
SAGINAW 17.0 19.0 24.0 15 26 <5 13 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 03/03/2025 - 06/01/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
CLINTON RIVER
CLINTON TWP 16.0 17.0 19.0 10 15 <5 6 <5 <5
MT CLEMENS 16.0 17.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
NORTH BRANCH CLINTON RIVER
MT CLEMENS 15.0 16.0 18.0 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
RIVER ROUGE
DETROIT 15.0 18.0 20.0 25 30 <5 6 <5 <5
MIDDLE RIVER ROUGE
DEARBORN HTS 10.0 11.0 12.0 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
LOWER ROUGE RIVER
DEARBORN 11.0 12.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
MILL CREEK
DEXTER 12.0 13.0 14.0 <5 11 <5 8 <5 5
HURON RIVER
HAMBURG 7.0 7.5 8.0 16 30 <5 16 <5 10
ANN ARBOR 16.0 17.0 18.0 <5 12 <5 <5 <5 <5
RIVER RAISIN
TECUMSEH 13.0 14.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
ADRIAN 18.0 19.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
BLISSFIELD 683.0 685.0 687.0 6 17 <5 6 <5 <5
DUNDEE 650.0 652.0 653.0 <5 14 <5 7 <5 5
MONROE 9.0 10.0 11.0 <5 17 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
..PAST PRECIPITATION
SO FAR THE WINTER FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN HAS BEEN DRIER THEN NORMAL BOTH
PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL. OVERALL TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.
..RIVER CONDITIONS
MOST RIVERS ARE FLOWING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE BASE FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BELOW NORMAL COLD SPELL
THROUGH MOST OF FEBRUARY HAS CAUSED PARTIAL TO MOSTLY ICE COVERED RIVERS.
.
..SOIL CONDITIONS AND FROST DEPTH
DECENT SNOW MELT AND RAINFALL EVENT BACK IN JANUARY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES HAVE FROZEN ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE IN THE UPPER ZONE OF
THE SOIL. DECENT COLD SPELL SINCE LAST OUTLOOK HAS ALLOWED FROST DEPTHS
TO DEEPEN. MOST RANGE FROM 6 TO 16 INCHES. FROST DEPTHS CAN VARY QUITE A
BIT IN SHORT DISTANCES.
..SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM ZERO TO A COUPLE INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH
POCKETS OF 3 TO 5 ACROSS THE THUMB AND NORTHERN SAGINAW VALLEY. WATER CONTENT
OF THE DEEPEST SNOW PACKS IS ABOUT A HALF AN INCH OR LESS.
..WEATHER OUTLOOK
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 8-14 DAYS CALLS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE REST OF SPRING IS FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
..FLOOD SUMMARY OUTLOOK
CURRENT CONDITIONS SO FAR THIS WINTER YIELDS A BELOW NORMAL CHANCE FOR MODERATE
OR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING DUE TO A MUCH BELOW NORMAL SNOW PACK AND WATER CONTENT.
RIVER FLOODING WOULD PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON FROZEN GROUND.
ICE JAMS STILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY RAPID RISE AND BREAKUP IN RIVER ICE.
THIS NEXT SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE MARCH 13.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX
DRC
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