885
FXUS63 KDTX 280835
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
435 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* MILDER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND SATURDAY - SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
* SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT RISK (2/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.
* SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
WARM-UP ARRIVES WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
A DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DIRECTS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
PENINSULA THIS MORNING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INITIALLY BE FOCUSED
BETWEEN THE 850 AND 700MB LEVELS WITH SOME RESIDUAL DRY AIR HOLDING
IN THE LOWEST 5000 FT WHICH KEEPS MOST EARLY MORNING SHOWERS SPOTTY
AND LIGHT. AS THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM GAINS BETTER ORGANIZATION BY
MIDDAY, A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL WORK IN FROM THE MIDWEST
TO PROVIDE DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION AS WELL AS FORCE THE SURFACE
PORTION OF THE FRONT INTO THE AREA. MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE NOSE
OF THE LLJ PROVIDES BETTER ASCENT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHILE A HIGH PLAINS EML ADVECTS IN ALOFT TO OFFER
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG OR
BELOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
TODAY'S TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE SENSITIVE TO HOW QUICKLY THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. IF EARLY FROPA OCCURS WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH, LOWER TO MID
70S ARE ATTAINABLE SOUTH OF I-94. OTHERWISE, MAINLY MID TO UPPER 60S
ARE FORECAST FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST MI. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES ALONG SAGINAW BAY AND THE
THUMB WHERE THE FRONT'S NORTHWARD PROGRESS WILL BE CHALLENGED BY AN
EASTERLY/MARINE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND - THIS IS FORECAST TO
LIMIT HIGHS TO MAINLY THE 50S IN THESE SPOTS. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO FRONTAL PLACEMENT THIS EVENING IS
ILLUSTRATED BY HREF 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURE PROGS SHOWING A
CORRIDOR OF 10+ DEGREE SPREAD ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB.
IMPRESSIVE STRENGTHENING TO THE LLJ OVERHEAD TONIGHT AS 850MB WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE TO 60 KT - NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THIS DIRECTS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE AREA
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A 20
TO 30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THUMB AND BAY COUNTY
WHICH MAY BE CLIPPED BY ADDITIONAL PASSING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE
BULK OF THE MOMENTUM WILL BE LOCKED ABOVE THE SURFACE BY NOCTURNAL
STABILITY, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETAIN AN OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS
OVERNIGHT UP TO AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH. THE LLJ DIMINISHES THROUGH THE
MORNING BUT MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH FOR EARLY DAYTIME MIXING TO TAP
INTO SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS, SO WILL KEEP GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH
GOING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. ANOTHER VERY MILD DAY IN
STORE WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S FORECAST WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EARLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AS
THE STALLED FRONT OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN SLOWLY RELEASES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS SET TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON SATURDAY WITH INFLUENCE OF ITS WARM ADVECTIVE WING ARRIVING
SATURDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WITH PWAT
NEARING 1.25 INCHES. RENEWED SOUTHWEST FLOW FORCES THE RESIDENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTHWARD WITH AN ATTENDANT HIGH LIKELIHOOD
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ONE MORE MILD DAY SPENT IN THE WARM
SECTOR ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY HIGH CHANCES (70 TO 90%) FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE LOW LIFTS IN FROM THE
WEST, IT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER UPSTREAM THAT MAY
ENCROACH ON PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MI BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING -
LREF PROGS HIGHLIGHT A 15% PROBABILITY FOR SBCAPE > 750 J/KG AND SFC-
500MB BULK WIND SHEAR > 35 KT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY AVAILABLE SEVERE
ML PROB GUIDANCE AND HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED AS A SLIGHT RISK IN THE
SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK. THE SYSTEM USHERS A COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WHICH SENDS TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
BENIGN WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM LIFTS IN ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE COURSE OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAIN-SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON.
EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURING OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON LATE THIS EVENING WHERE
FAVORABLE FETCH ALLOWS FOR 25-30KT GUSTS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
BETWEEN THE STRAITS AND ALPENA BEFORE SAGGING BACK SOUTH DAYTIME
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS DIRECTLY OVER LAKE HURON. ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW THEN TRACKS ALONG THIS LINGERING BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY-EARLY MONDAY. RESULT IS LONG
DURATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCLUDING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE, OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY HOLD UNDER 25KTS (VARIABLE DIRECTION GIVEN THE
LOWS PASSING OVERHEAD) BEFORE INCREASING TO 25-30KTS MONDAY AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE LAST
SURFACE LOW.
HYDROLOGY
A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS LOWER MI TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE 0.25" OR
BELOW THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT SINKS BACK SOUTH SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN GULF MOISTURE WITH HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.00" BUT LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IF MULTIPLE STORMS TRACK OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.
THESE AMOUNTS WILL BRING MINOR PONDING AND RISES IN AREA CREEKS AND
STREAMS, BUT FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY, MARCH 29TH:
DETROIT: 54 DEGREES (SET IN 1910)
FLINT: 52 DEGREES (SET IN 1986)
SAGINAW: 52 DEGREES (SET IN 1981)
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
AVIATION...
THE ELEVATED PORTION OF A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS SE MI
FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL DRIVE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUPPORT LOWERING CEILINGS FROM VFR TO
MVFR IN THE 08Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL INCH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT WILL DRIVE CEILINGS TOWARD LOW
END MVFR AND IFR LATE FRI MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE
BETTER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL ASCENT WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF HIGHER
INTENSITY SHOWERS LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRI
MORNING/EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL OFFER A
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SFC WARM FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE EXPECTED EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW OFF SAGINAW BAY,
THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO HOLD SOUTH OF MBS THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.
FOR DTW...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER INTENSITY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST DURING THE 14Z TO 20Z TIME FRAME. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
(<25%) FOR AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM WITHIN THESE HIGHER INTENSITY
SHOWERS.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET FRIDAY. LOW FRIDAY EVENING.
* LOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TF
MARINE.......KDK
HYDROLOGY....TF
CLIMATE......MV
AVIATION.....SC
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