612
FXUS63 KDTX 281653
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1253 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* MILDER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
* SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SATURDAY - SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
* SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT RISK (2/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.
* SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
WARM-UP ARRIVES WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
MIDWEST LOW PRESSURE PULLS A WARM FRONT FROM THE OHIO BORDER REGION
INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI TODAY. THIS PROCESS SPAWNED A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE IN PROGRESS
ACROSS SE MI AT FORECAST ISSUANCE. HEAVIER RAINFALL HAS VISIBILITY
DOWN TO BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR AT TIMES AND CONTRIBUTING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE TO MVFR CEILING GRADUALLY FILLING IN THROUGH THE FRONTAL
ZONE. THE MAIN AREA SHOWERS/STORMS IS PROJECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z FOLLOWED BY TRAILING STREAMERS
BY AROUND 20Z. THE WARM FRONT ALSO REACHES THE MBS AREA MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WHERE THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS IT HOVERING
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH, CONDITIONS TREND
SOLIDLY UP TO VFR IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. A SURVEY OF
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS A SUFFICIENT SURFACE BASED STABLE LAYER FOR
CONTINUED HIGHLIGHTING OF NOCTURNAL LLWS WHICH TRANSITIONS TO SW
SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN THE RANGE OF 30 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR DTW... SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER MOVE THROUGH THE DTW AIR
SPACE UNTIL EXITING EASTWARD BY 20Z. CEILING TRENDS IMPROVE FROM LOW
END MVFR TO VFR ABOVE 5000 FT AFTER A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL AFTER 20Z WHICH THEN HOLDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TONIGHT.
* LOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
DISCUSSION...
A DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DIRECTS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
PENINSULA THIS MORNING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INITIALLY BE FOCUSED
BETWEEN THE 850 AND 700MB LEVELS WITH SOME RESIDUAL DRY AIR HOLDING
IN THE LOWEST 5000 FT WHICH KEEPS MOST EARLY MORNING SHOWERS SPOTTY
AND LIGHT. AS THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM GAINS BETTER ORGANIZATION BY
MIDDAY, A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL WORK IN FROM THE MIDWEST
TO PROVIDE DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION AS WELL AS FORCE THE SURFACE
PORTION OF THE FRONT INTO THE AREA. MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE NOSE
OF THE LLJ PROVIDES BETTER ASCENT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHILE A HIGH PLAINS EML ADVECTS IN ALOFT TO OFFER
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG OR
BELOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
TODAY'S TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE SENSITIVE TO HOW QUICKLY THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. IF EARLY FROPA OCCURS WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH, LOWER TO MID
70S ARE ATTAINABLE SOUTH OF I-94. OTHERWISE, MAINLY MID TO UPPER 60S
ARE FORECAST FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST MI. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES ALONG SAGINAW BAY AND THE
THUMB WHERE THE FRONT'S NORTHWARD PROGRESS WILL BE CHALLENGED BY AN
EASTERLY/MARINE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND - THIS IS FORECAST TO
LIMIT HIGHS TO MAINLY THE 50S IN THESE SPOTS. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO FRONTAL PLACEMENT THIS EVENING IS
ILLUSTRATED BY HREF 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURE PROGS SHOWING A
CORRIDOR OF 10+ DEGREE SPREAD ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB.
IMPRESSIVE STRENGTHENING TO THE LLJ OVERHEAD TONIGHT AS 850MB WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE TO 60 KT - NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THIS DIRECTS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE AREA
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A 20
TO 30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THUMB AND BAY COUNTY
WHICH MAY BE CLIPPED BY ADDITIONAL PASSING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE
BULK OF THE MOMENTUM WILL BE LOCKED ABOVE THE SURFACE BY NOCTURNAL
STABILITY, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETAIN AN OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS
OVERNIGHT UP TO AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH. THE LLJ DIMINISHES THROUGH THE
MORNING BUT MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH FOR EARLY DAYTIME MIXING TO TAP
INTO SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS, SO WILL KEEP GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH
GOING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. ANOTHER VERY MILD DAY IN
STORE WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S FORECAST WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EARLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AS
THE STALLED FRONT OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN SLOWLY RELEASES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS SET TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON SATURDAY WITH INFLUENCE OF ITS WARM ADVECTIVE WING ARRIVING
SATURDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WITH PWAT
NEARING 1.25 INCHES. RENEWED SOUTHWEST FLOW FORCES THE RESIDENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTHWARD WITH AN ATTENDANT HIGH LIKELIHOOD
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ONE MORE MILD DAY SPENT IN THE WARM
SECTOR ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY HIGH CHANCES (70 TO 90%) FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE LOW LIFTS IN FROM THE
WEST, IT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER UPSTREAM THAT MAY
ENCROACH ON PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MI BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING -
LREF PROGS HIGHLIGHT A 15% PROBABILITY FOR SBCAPE > 750 J/KG AND SFC-
500MB BULK WIND SHEAR > 35 KT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY AVAILABLE SEVERE
ML PROB GUIDANCE AND HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED AS A SLIGHT RISK IN THE
SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK. THE SYSTEM USHERS A COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WHICH SENDS TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
BENIGN WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM LIFTS IN ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE...
A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE COURSE OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAIN-SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON.
EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURING OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON LATE THIS EVENING WHERE
FAVORABLE FETCH ALLOWS FOR 25-30KT GUSTS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
BETWEEN THE STRAITS AND ALPENA BEFORE SAGGING BACK SOUTH DAYTIME
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS DIRECTLY OVER LAKE HURON. ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW THEN TRACKS ALONG THIS LINGERING BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY-EARLY MONDAY. RESULT IS LONG
DURATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCLUDING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE, OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY HOLD UNDER 25KTS (VARIABLE DIRECTION GIVEN THE
LOWS PASSING OVERHEAD) BEFORE INCREASING TO 25-30KTS MONDAY AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE LAST
SURFACE LOW.
HYDROLOGY...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS LOWER MI TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE 0.25" OR
BELOW THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT SINKS BACK SOUTH SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN GULF MOISTURE WITH HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.00" BUT LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IF MULTIPLE STORMS TRACK OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.
THESE AMOUNTS WILL BRING MINOR PONDING AND RISES IN AREA CREEKS AND
STREAMS, BUT FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE...
THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY, MARCH 29TH:
DETROIT: 54 DEGREES (SET IN 1910)
FLINT: 52 DEGREES (SET IN 1986)
SAGINAW: 52 DEGREES (SET IN 1981)
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...TF
MARINE.......KDK
HYDROLOGY....TF
CLIMATE......MV
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AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
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