546
FXUS63 KDTX 310338
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1138 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT ROUND OF WARMER WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNS WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRAVERSE SE MI DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER SOME HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY IN CEILING HEIGHTS
THIS EVENING, THE MOISTURE ADVECTION COMBINED WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT PREVAILING MVFR BASED CEILINGS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A VEERING OF THE WINDS TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING AS MUCH COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE AREA. SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION DEEPENS THE LOW LEVEL MIXED
LAYER. DRY AIR ADVECTION DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON WILL
SUPPORT A CLEARING TREND TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* HIGH IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WINDOW REMAINS 6 TO 10 PM THIS EVENING.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND ORGANIZATION UNDERWAY AS EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN IL, WITHIN AN AXIS OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DERIVED
WITHIN A GREATER CORRIDOR OF PRE-COLD FRONTAL CLEARING. TO THE
EXTENT THIS CLEARING ARRIVES LOCALLY REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
GIVEN POCKETS OF CLOUD DEBRIS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS WARM
SECTOR, BUT A NOTEWORTHY PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
/LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS/ AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STEADY BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 700 TO 1300 J/KG STILL PROJECTED
BY HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH UPWARDS OF 200 J/KG ACROSS THE LOWEST
3 KM. INBOUND ACTIVITY LIKELY TO MAINTAIN A LINEAR MODE WITH
CLUSTERS OF HIGHER MAGNITUDE UPDRAFTS AS THE SHEAR VECTOR BECOMES
INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE GOVERNING FORCED ASCENT ALONG THE
ADVANCING BOUNDARY. DAMAGING WIND GUST POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTED AS THE
GREATEST THREAT WITHIN THE EXPANSIVE SPC ENHANCED RISK UNDER THIS
ENVIRONMENT. A TORNADO RISK DOES EXIST NOTING MAINTENANCE OF A
SLIGHTLY VEERED PROFILE WITH HEIGHT AND ACCOMPANYING INCREASE IN
ADEQUATE SRH. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE WARM FRONT TO STALL OVER THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB, SO ANY INTERSECTION OF INCOMING
ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE COULD OFFER A HEIGHTENED RISK FOR
UPDRAFTS TO QUICKLY ATTAIN GREATER STRUCTURE AND ROTATE.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS A SWIFT END TO THE CONVECTIVE THREAT BY
02Z, WITH LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWER PRODUCTION THROUGH
THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT AS THE TRAILING MID LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH. THIS OCCURS WITHIN A GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND, AS ENSUING COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE. PEAK
GUSTS REACHING 30 TO 35 MPH. AIRMASS CHANGE COMPLETES HEADING INTO
MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING TAKES RESIDENCE WITHIN A
BROADER REGION OF MID LEVEL TROUGHING. THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS WILL EFFECTIVELY MINIMIZE THE DIURNAL RECOVERY
IN TEMPERATURE MONDAY, PLACING A CEILING FOR HIGHS AT LOW TO MID
40S. STRETCH OF DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS EXIST TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. FULL INSOLATION
POTENTIAL GIVEN THE PROFILE, BUT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW HOLDING OUT OF
A COLD NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS ENSURES SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS PREVAIL AGAIN TUESDAY.
YET ANOTHER DYNAMIC MID LEVEL WAVE OF CENTRAL PACIFIC ORIGIN
PROJECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY. EXPANSIVE CORRIDOR OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE
DOWNSTREAM FLANK WILL INITIATE DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THE
NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL SLOPE. INBOUND ARRIVAL SET LOCALLY
FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR ELEVATED THUNDER GIVEN QUALITY OF THE THETA-E
ADVECTION. STEADY LATE DAY/EVENING BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AS
THE WARM SECTOR MAKES GREATER INROADS WILL LEAD TO A THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT NOT UNLIKE TODAY, AS TEMPS PEAK IN THE 60S AND DEWPOINTS
APPROACH THIS MARK. GIVEN THE UNDERLYING WIND FIELD CURRENTLY
PROJECTED, THIS AGAIN BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER MAGNITUDE
CONVECTIVE EPISODE TO EMERGE ALONG AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT/TROUGH.
DEPENDING ON PACE AND POSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL ZONE RELATIVE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, POSSIBILITY FOR AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ALSO EXISTS. PREVAILING MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW LEFT BEHIND IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS MILDER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
MARINE...
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN THUMB CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE REACHING THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE WARMER, MOIST AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS
SUPPORTIVE OF AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH WEBCAMS NEAR PORT HURON
SHOWING PATCHY FOG POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS LOW WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS
DIRECTLY OVER LAKE HURON. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY DEVELOPS IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT, TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 6PM AND MIDNIGHT. STORMS MAY BE SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY OVER WATERS SOUTH OF PORT AUSTIN, WHERE THE MAIN HAZARD
IS STRONG GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34KTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
SECONDARY, LESSER CHANCE, HAZARDS ARE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADIC
WATERSPOUT. COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW THEN REDEVELOPS BY MONDAY
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW/COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GIVEN THE LOW
RAPIDLY PUSHES INTO EASTERN CANADA, A WEAKENING GRADIENT OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO KEEP NW GUSTS BELOW 30KTS. THIS
DOES LEAD TO LARGER WAVES AROUND THE THUMB NEARSHORE WATERS WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UP THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND
LIGHTER WINDS.
HYDROLOGY...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE
STRONGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT STORMS. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH POSSIBLE. MINOR PONDING OF WATER OF PRONE
AREAS ALONG WITH RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAM ARE POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL TAPERS OFF QUICKLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LHZ421-441.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LHZ442-443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......KDK
HYDROLOGY....MR
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