090
FXUS63 KDTX 310839
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
439 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW
WITH WARMER WEATHER RETURNING WEDNESDAY INTO LATE WEEK.
* ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS AN ENHANCED RISK (3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST OF A FENTON TO LIVONIA LINE AND A SLIGHT RISK (2/5) FOR
REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS ALONG
WITH A TORNADO THREAT.
* HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OR GREATER FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
IN PLACE ACROSS WAYNE, LENAWEE, AND MONROE COUNTIES AND A MARGINAL
RISK UP TO THE I-69 CORRIDOR.
DISCUSSION
EARLY MORNING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A COOLER
AIRMASS AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OFF INTO ONTARIO
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN
INTO THE 40S BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE DETROIT METRO AREA. POST
FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN GUSTINESS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THE EARLY DAY COLD ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO AROUND -5C AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE DAY WILL
LIMIT THE DAYTIME HEATING RESPONSE AND KEEP HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE 40S. ASIDE FROM LIGHT RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLY GRAZING PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN THUMB THIS MORNING, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A DECENT COOL OFF WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
MID 20S FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VEERING
FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 40S WITH THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE THUMB IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.
ANOTHER HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND EJECT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY. DOWNSTREAM ASCENT ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL SLOPE OFFERS A CHANCE SNOW OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
LOWER LEVEL TEMPERATURE AND P-TYPE TRENDS AS CURRENT FORECAST AT THE
SURFACE IS RIGHT AROUND FREEZING FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE M-
59 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOCUSED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE
I-69. THE BURGEONING WARM SECTOR ENGULFS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING LEADING TO A QUICK TRANSITION TO RAINFALL
WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE MANY IMPACTS FROM ANY WINTRY MIX BEYOND THE
MORNING COMMUTE. IMPROVING THETA-E ENVIRONMENT WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR ELEVATED THUNDER DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH THIS INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE. BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
WILL STEADILY INCREASE INTO THE LATER PART OF THE DAY AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE
60S. AN IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD WITH A 60+ KNOT LOWER LEVEL JET WILL
HELP DRIVE THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL. VERY
STRONG SHEAR OF 60+ KNOTS AND LARGELY CURVED HODOGRAPHS SUPPORT
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A
TORNADO THREAT. SPC CURRENTLY HAS US IN AN ENHANCED RISK FOR DAY 3
FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE REST OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. CURRENT QPF FORECAST COVERING ALL OF OF
WEDNESDAY IS A SOLID 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA COVERING
THE MORNING RAIN/SNOW AND THEN THE LATER DAY CONVECTIVE EPISODE. A
DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO IN PLACE MAINLY OVER
WAYNE, LENAWEE, AND MONROE COUNTIES WITH A MARGINAL RISK UP TO THE I-
69 CORRIDOR.
MAINTENANCE OF DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE WEDNESDAY
SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE MILD SIDE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 50S RESPECTIVELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING
LARGELY ABOVE FREEZING ASIDE FROM FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
FRONTAL ZONE HANGS OUT AROUND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFFERING LOW
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING PARTS OF THE
LATE WEEK, BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TO CLOSE OUT THE
WORK WEEK.
MARINE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN THUMB CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE REACHING THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE WARMER, MOIST AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS
SUPPORTIVE OF AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH WEBCAMS NEAR PORT HURON
SHOWING PATCHY FOG POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS LOW WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS
DIRECTLY OVER LAKE HURON. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY DEVELOPS IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT, TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 6PM AND MIDNIGHT. STORMS MAY BE SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY OVER WATERS SOUTH OF PORT AUSTIN, WHERE THE MAIN HAZARD
IS STRONG GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34KTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
SECONDARY, LESSER CHANCE, HAZARDS ARE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADIC
WATERSPOUT. COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW THEN REDEVELOPS BY MONDAY
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW/COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GIVEN THE LOW
RAPIDLY PUSHES INTO EASTERN CANADA, A WEAKENING GRADIENT OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO KEEP NW GUSTS BELOW 30KTS. THIS
DOES LEAD TO LARGER WAVES AROUND THE THUMB NEARSHORE WATERS WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UP THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND
LIGHTER WINDS.
HYDROLOGY
WEDNESDAY CARRIES POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PWATS INCREASE TO 1.25
INCHES AND GREATER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND HOLD THERE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF OVER A 24 HOUR
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TWO PEAKS IN HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE FIRST
COMING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER PEAK WEDNESDAY EVENING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF GREATER THAN TWO INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THERE WILL BE INCREASED FLOODING CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IF THE AXIS OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL SETS UP OVER THE URBAN AREAS OF DETROIT. RISES IN
AREA RIVERS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1138 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRAVERSE SE MI DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER SOME HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY IN CEILING HEIGHTS
THIS EVENING, THE MOISTURE ADVECTION COMBINED WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT PREVAILING MVFR BASED CEILINGS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A VEERING OF THE WINDS TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING AS MUCH COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE AREA. SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION DEEPENS THE LOW LEVEL MIXED
LAYER. DRY AIR ADVECTION DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON WILL
SUPPORT A CLEARING TREND TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LHZ421-441.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LHZ442-443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......KDK
HYDROLOGY....AA
AVIATION.....SC
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