033
FXUS63 KDTX 210714
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
314 AM EDT MON APR 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.
- TURNING WINDY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST GUSTS
OF 35 TO 45 MPH.
- WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
1003 MB SURFACE LOW POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL TRACK TO NEAR EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY EVENING. NARROW AXIS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE ANCHORED ALONG THE INBOUND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON PACE TO SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
MORNING PERIOD. ASCENT REMAINS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT POCKETS OF
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT, WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER PLAUSIBLE GIVEN
PRESENCE OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. EARLY DAY WARM FRONTAL TIMING
AFFORDS A SHORT WINDOW /15Z-18Z/ OF LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION,
BEFORE THE TRAILING COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S. MEANINGFUL
SURFACE DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LACKING TO SUPPORT A GREATER
SECONDARY CONVECTIVE RESPONSE, BUT ISOLATED SUB-SEVERE CONVECTION
REMAINS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. NOTABLE INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDE OCCURS WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THIS FROPA, BACKED BY
A FIRM SOUTHWEST GRADIENT IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS AND SOLID A 30-35
KNOTS COMFORTABLY WITHIN THE THE MIXED LAYER. GREATEST MIXING
POTENTIAL OCCURS AS A FEW BREAKS EMERGE IN THE CLOUD INITIALLY
WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, BUT THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY
COMPROMISED AS LOWER CLOUD INCREASES COVERAGE DIURNALLY. THIS
APPEARS TO PLACE A CEILING ON PROSPECTIVE GUST POTENTIAL OVERALL TO
AROUND 45 MPH. GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL REMAIN COMMON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS UNDER SUSTAINED COLD AIR ADVECTION, DESPITE PERSIST
LOW STRATUS.
LOWER AMPLITUDE WESTERLY FLOW TO GOVERN CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
MID WEEK PERIOD. GENERAL MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ATOP PERVASIVE SURFACE
RIDGING ENSURES BENIGN CONDITIONS TUESDAY, AS THE RESIDENT THERMAL
PROFILE FAVORS TEMPERATURES EDGED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF AVERAGE.
WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS INTO THE REGION TUE NIGHT,
RESPONDING TO SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW UPSTREAM AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL CONUS. A MODEST INCREASE IN
BOTH MOISTURE QUALITY AND ASCENT IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
MAINTAIN NOTABLY COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN THUMB, WHILE
SOUTHERN AREAS PUSH TOWARD 70 DEGREES WEDNESDAY. MODERATING THERMAL
PROFILE TAKES AN ADDITIONAL UPWARD STEP THURSDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS
BUILD. PREVAILING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY OFFER SOME
RESISTANCE, BUT PROJECTED HIGHS NOW TARGETING THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR
ALL LOCATIONS BUT THE EASTERN THUMB.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
STRAITS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS PRIOR
TO THE PASSAGE OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM
ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPS MAJORITY OF THE WATERWAYS STABLE,
ALTHOUGH THE LAND-LAKE INTERFACE PRESENTS TYPICAL CONCERNS FOR LAND-
BASED GUSTS TO REACH THE SHORELINE. IN THIS CASE, A SHORT-FUSED GALE
WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY IF OBSERVATIONS WARRANT. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT SAGINAW BAY MAY SEE A MORE WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF GALES
THIS EVENING AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
WIND FIELD SEEMS TO OUTPACE COLD ADVECTION AND LIMITS THE DURATION.
HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT DURATION WITH
SPORADIC GUSTS TO GALES. A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR GALES EXISTS
DOWNWIND OF THE STRAITS INTO NORTHERN LAKE HURON EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WHERE COLDER AIR TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWEST FLOW FUNNEL
ALONG THE FETCH. THERE IS TIME YET TO SEE HOW THE FIRST PART OF THIS
EVENT PLAYS OUT THOUGH, AS WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE
COLD/STABLE THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY TO
SUPPORT A MORE BENIGN MID-WEEK PATTERN.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EDT MON APR 21 2025
AVIATION...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN AS THE
ELEVATED PORTION OF THE SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT IS NOW ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE TERMINALS (SEE 21.00Z KDTX SOUNDING). MODELS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT
MOISTENING SHOULD BE ACHIEVED SHORTLY AFTER 06Z WITH A CLUSTER OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS LIFTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LAPSE-RATES ALOFT
AREN'T PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD GENERATE
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AS WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MATERIALIZES.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE HIGH-END MVFR CATEGORY WITH
LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS AS SURFACE WINDS LAG, EVENTUALLY VEERING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY. MIXED-LAYER ACTIVATES LATE MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LEADING TO STRONG GUSTY WINDS DURING THE
DAY, VEERING TOWARD THE WEST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30
KNOTS.
FOR DTW...CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z, THEN
SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS, POSSIBLY INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS SPIKE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET MONDAY MORNING.
* MEDIUM FOR THUNDERSTORMS 07Z TO 10Z MONDAY.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ361-
362.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LHZ421-422.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LHZ421-422.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LHZ421-422.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LEZ444.
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......MV
AVIATION.....KGK
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