846
FXUS63 KDTX 220743
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
343 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TUESDAY, BUT TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
MID WEEK PERIOD GOVERNED BY LOW AMPLITUDE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW,
FEATURING A SERIES OF MINOR PV FEATURES AND EMERGENCE OF A BROADER
SCALE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS MORNING OFFERS A DEFINITIVE WINDOW OF DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS UNDER EXISTING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING EVIDENT LOCALLY THIS
MORNING LOSES INFLUENCE WITH TIME AS A MODERATING THERMAL PROFILE
CAPITALIZES ON FULL INSOLATION POTENTIAL. THIS POSITIONS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AGAIN ABOVE AVERAGE - HIGHS MAINLY LOW TO MID 60S.
INITIAL SHORTWAVE SHEARS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS PROCESS DUMPS A LIMITED SUPPLY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO SE MI, BUT RETAINS A DRY LOW LEVEL PROFILE. GIVEN A RATHER
DISORGANIZED OR ILL-DEFINED VERTICAL MOTION FIELD TIED TO PASSING
MID LEVEL ENERGY, RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. THERE WILL
BE A NOTED INCREASE IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SO EVEN A LOW COVERAGE
COULD OFFER A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY, INITIATING AN MORE
MEANINGFUL WARMING TREND WITHIN THE BACKGROUND OF GRADUALLY BUILDING
UPPER HEIGHTS. ESTABLISHED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY, AFFORDING THE WARMEST DAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGHS
PEAK WELL INTO THE 70S. CONVECTIVE SHOWER W/ ISOLATED T-STORM
POTENTIAL REMAINS ILL-DEFINED THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, OWING TO
UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE OF ADDITIONAL INBOUND
LOW AMPLITUDE PV, AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL FRONTAL POSITIONING AND
ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE. FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BROADER
LOWER END RAIN CHANCES AT TIMES, WITH FURTHER REVISION LIKELY AS NEAR
TERM DETAIL BECOMES MORE EVIDENT.
A MORE DYNAMIC OPEN WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
PROVIDE A GREATER LARGER SCALE OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN FRIDAY.
COLLECTIVE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY HOLDS WITH A PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION OVERALL, CONFINING THE IMPACT TO MAINLY THE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT PERIODS AHEAD OF HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING SET TO DOMINATE
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND. A COOLER OVERALL PROFILE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW
LEVEL FLOW MEANS TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FAVORED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE GUSTS TO GALES ACROSS THE NORTHERN-THIRD OF LAKE HURON
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WIND GUSTS TO GALES WILL THEN DIMINISH
QUICKLY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ONCE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN AND SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHTER WINDS
WILL CARRY ON THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD GIVEN THE CONTINUED
INFLUENCE OF HIGHER PRESSURE, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY, WHICH
WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER AND SOME ELEVATED WIND
GUSTS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EDT MON APR 21 2025
AVIATION...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO WESTERN QUEBEC
TONIGHT WHICH USHERS IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR THE TERMINALS INTO
TUESDAY. THE COLDEST AIR WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN, BUT SUFFICIENT COOLING HAS SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRATOCUMULUS DECK THIS EVENING. EXPECTATION IS THAT CLOUD BASES
STILL HOLD IN THE LOW-END VFR RANGE A BIT LONGER BEFORE SCATTERING
OUT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FURTHER
RELAXES WITH TIME TONIGHT AS THE RATE OF IMPROVEMENT IS DICTATED BY
THE DEPARTURE SPEED OF THE SURFACE LOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY
PROMOTING A DRIER COLUMN LOCALLY WITH WEAKER WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTING CLOUDS SPILL DOWNSTREAM INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN FROM THE PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING AS SURFACE FLOW BACKS
SOUTHERLY, DUE TO THE EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF OHIO VALLEY RIDGING.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 08Z
TONIGHT, THEN LOW FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ361-362.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ421-422-
441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LEZ444.
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......HI
AVIATION.....KGK
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