988
FXUS63 KDTX 220953
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
553 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TUESDAY, BUT TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY.
AVIATION
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE NEW FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OVERHEAD. LIGHTER WEST FLOW, 10KTS OR LESS, ACCOMPANIES THIS
HIGH. MID CLOUD ABOVE ~6KFT SPILLS INTO THE REGION FROM PLAINS
CONVECTION LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE
EVENING. WITH THE HIGH DRYING THE COLUMN, WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR
THESE SHOWERS/STORMS TO SURVIVE THIS FAR EAST SO HAVE HELD OFF ON
ANY MENTIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. ZONAL UPPER WINDS ALLOW A SERIES
OF WEAK WAVES TO TRACK TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THEIR WEAK FORCING, DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN
FAVORED AREAS OF POTENTIAL SHOWER COVERAGE THOUGH ITS CURRENTLY
LOOKING AREAS FROM PTK-NORTH HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES TONIGHT TO SEE
A SHOWER BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH TOWARDS THE DETROIT TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW, HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30 GROUPS TO
HIGHLIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO TS.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* LOW FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
DISCUSSION...
MID WEEK PERIOD GOVERNED BY LOW AMPLITUDE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW,
FEATURING A SERIES OF MINOR PV FEATURES AND EMERGENCE OF A BROADER
SCALE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS MORNING OFFERS A DEFINITIVE WINDOW OF DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS UNDER EXISTING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING EVIDENT LOCALLY THIS
MORNING LOSES INFLUENCE WITH TIME AS A MODERATING THERMAL PROFILE
CAPITALIZES ON FULL INSOLATION POTENTIAL. THIS POSITIONS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AGAIN ABOVE AVERAGE - HIGHS MAINLY LOW TO MID 60S.
INITIAL SHORTWAVE SHEARS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS PROCESS DUMPS A LIMITED SUPPLY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO SE MI, BUT RETAINS A DRY LOW LEVEL PROFILE. GIVEN A RATHER
DISORGANIZED OR ILL-DEFINED VERTICAL MOTION FIELD TIED TO PASSING
MID LEVEL ENERGY, RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. THERE WILL
BE A NOTED INCREASE IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SO EVEN A LOW COVERAGE
COULD OFFER A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY, INITIATING AN MORE
MEANINGFUL WARMING TREND WITHIN THE BACKGROUND OF GRADUALLY BUILDING
UPPER HEIGHTS. ESTABLISHED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY, AFFORDING THE WARMEST DAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGHS
PEAK WELL INTO THE 70S. CONVECTIVE SHOWER W/ ISOLATED T-STORM
POTENTIAL REMAINS ILL-DEFINED THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, OWING TO
UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE OF ADDITIONAL INBOUND
LOW AMPLITUDE PV, AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL FRONTAL POSITIONING AND
ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE. FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BROADER
LOWER END RAIN CHANCES AT TIMES, WITH FURTHER REVISION LIKELY AS NEAR
TERM DETAIL BECOMES MORE EVIDENT.
A MORE DYNAMIC OPEN WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
PROVIDE A GREATER LARGER SCALE OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN FRIDAY.
COLLECTIVE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY HOLDS WITH A PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION OVERALL, CONFINING THE IMPACT TO MAINLY THE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT PERIODS AHEAD OF HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING SET TO DOMINATE
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND. A COOLER OVERALL PROFILE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW
LEVEL FLOW MEANS TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FAVORED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE GUSTS TO GALES ACROSS THE NORTHERN-THIRD OF LAKE HURON
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WIND GUSTS TO GALES WILL THEN DIMINISH
QUICKLY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ONCE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN AND SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHTER WINDS
WILL CARRY ON THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD GIVEN THE CONTINUED
INFLUENCE OF HIGHER PRESSURE, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY, WHICH
WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER AND SOME ELEVATED WIND
GUSTS.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ361-362.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ421-422-
441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....KDK
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......HI
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