830
FXUS63 KDTX 230406
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1206 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH WARMER OVER MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY.
AVIATION
MIDLEVEL THETAE ADVECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF A JET ENTRANCE REGION
HAS RESULTED IN HIGHER BASED SHOWER AND ISO THUNDER ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR -TSRA AT MBS TO OPEN THE
TAF PERIOD. MODEST MOISTURE IN THE 4.0 TO 7.0 KFT AGL LAYER
WEDNESDAY WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWER AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AGAIN AFTER 18Z 4/22. DID
ISSUE A PREVAILING GROUP FOR -TSRA AT ALL LOCATIONS WED AFTERNOON.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* LOW FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
* MEDIUM FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED SHOWERS NOW PUSHING INTO WRN LOWER MI ARE OCCURRING ALONG
THE LEAD EDGE OF A MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME AND DEEP ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER. THIS ENHANCED MID LEVEL MOIST AXIS WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS
SE MI DURING THE NIGHT. AFTERNOON SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS SRN LOWER MI
ARE ONLY IN THE 30S. AMPLE SUB 850MB DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. WHILE THIS WILL CERTAINLY LIMIT SHOWER
COVERAGE, WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY COURTESY OF 700-500MB LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8C WILL STILL WARRANT THE MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT
WILL LIMIT NOCTURNAL COOLING, HOLDING MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S.
AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL FEATURE FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION. SFC DEWPOINTS FORECAST
TO RISE INTO THE 50S SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN WEAK TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AIDED BY
CONTINUED STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS. THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES RIPPLING ACROSS LOWER MI WITHIN THE MID LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF CONVECTION. SOME MID LEVEL
CAPPING RESULTING FROM SUBTLE MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR HIGHER POPS ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTH FLOW AND DECENT
MIXING DEPTH IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO THE 70S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE LAKE HURON MARINE LAYER WILL
SUPPRESS DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE THUMB
AND SAGINAW VALLEY.
SUBTLE MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS SE MI ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY, WHILE THE WEAK SFC GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THE
SFC FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN THUMB AND SAGINAW BAY REGION GIVEN
THE DENSITY OF THE MARINE LAYER. A LITTLE BROADER MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY. WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH DECENT DAYTIME MIXING DEPTHS
WILL PUSH HIGHS TO NEAR 80/LOWER 80S THURSDAY, WITH MUCH COOLER
READINGS NEAR LAKE HURON. VARIATIONS IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE FEATURES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES REGION FRIDAY LEADS TO RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTIVE
TIMING AND CHANCES. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN THE MODEL SOLUTION SPACE OVER THE NEXT FEW
CYCLES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MILD CONDITIONS WITH
A HIGH CHANCE OF CONVECTION. THERE IS STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT IN MID
LEVEL RIDGING AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS.
MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO REDUCE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TO MAKE IT INTO LAKE HURON LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECTATION ARE FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO DECAY THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHTER WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD UNDER THE GUISE OF HIGHER PRESSURE AND A WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT. ANY LOCALIZED HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW, WHERE GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACTIVE WEATHER AND ELEVATED WINDS WILL COME ON
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES OVER THE STATE.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......AM
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