098
FXUS63 KDTX 231953
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
353 PM EDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH WARMER OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW.
- LOW CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE TONIGHT.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
- DRY AND SEASONABLE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ZONAL FLOW WILL USHER IN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BRING PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FIRST WAVE THIS
AFTERNOON TARGETS MORE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN AND THEN MORE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ONGOING LEAD WAVE WILL HAVE SOME WEAK DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE, THOUGH MESOANALYSIS KEEPS GREATEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED CU FIELD. THERE IS ALSO A LAKE BOUNDARY PROVIDING AN
ADDITIONAL FOCAL POINT FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT. EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK, BUT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED CONVECTION.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 6.5-7.0 C/KM MAINLY SUPPORTS THE LOW
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AND THE LOW HAIL THREAT. THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER MAY ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW FOR ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL WEAKEN THE INSTABILITY CURRENTLY PRESENT. EVEN
LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH OF OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY WITH WEAKENING
SURFACE INSTABILITY, BUT THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SLIGHTLY
BETTER OVERNIGHT SHEAR KEEPS A LOW POTENTIAL.
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL LIFT INTO MICHIGAN TOMORROW BRINGING
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. THOUGH, WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HI-RES TRENDS AS
THERE LOOKS TO BE A BOUNDARY PUSHING OFF LAKE HURON THAT DROPS DOWN
TO THE I-69 CORRIDOR. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME POP UP SHOWERS, MAYBE
A WEAK THUNDERSTORM, SUPPORTED BY SOME DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEPICTED
ACROSS THE THUMB/SAGINAW VALLEY. WILL MAINTAIN THE 15% POP IN THESE
LOCATIONS TO HIGHLIGHT THAT LOW POSSIBILITY. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW WITH A SIMILAR SOUTH TO
NORTH GRADIENT BECOMING MORE LIKELY. SOUTH OF I-69 WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH MOSTLY LOW-MID 70S NORTH OF I-69 AND 60S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN THUMB GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A MUCH GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY. LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXISTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THE
GREATER CHANCES WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS A PAIR OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES INDUCE A SURFACE LOW. THIS SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS MICHIGAN AND BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIKELY
RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS BETTER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE LIMITED, BUT BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PWATS
OF OVER 1 INCH ARRIVING OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. QPF FOR FRIDAY
CURRENTLY HAS AVERAGE TOTALS MOSTLY WITHIN THE QUARTER INCH TO HALF
INCH RANGE. AS IS TYPICAL, SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD FOR THE WEEKEND KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY, BUT
COOLER.
MARINE
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION PROMOTES LIGHT WIND
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT, PULLING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WITH PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST
BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT THEN SEEPS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 KT OR
BELOW BUT THE FRONTS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS. MORE ORGANIZED
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLY LEADING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON LAKE HURON.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EDT WED APR 23 2025
AVIATION...
A PAIR OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES UPSTREAM WILL TRACK ACROSS SE MI
THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE, STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THESE FEATURES. THE
BETTER CHANCES AT THE TERMINALS WILL BE FOCUSED BETWEEN 20Z AND
23Z. SUBTLE MOISTURE RETURN INTO SE MI WILL RESULT IN WEAK SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. OF NOTE IS THE STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WHICH SUSTAIN WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
ALOFT. FOR THIS REASON, A PROB30 GROUP WILL BE MAINTAINED IN ALL THE
TAFS FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
WITHIN ANY EVOLVING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE VFR GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR.
FOR DTW...THERE IS GENERALLY A 20 TO 30% CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AIRSPACE BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. THE LARGE
SCALE FORCING AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY DOES NOT SUPPORT A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS, RATHER SCATTERED TO ISOLATED BUT
POSSIBLY EMBEDDED WITHIN A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET TODAY.
* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......TF
AVIATION.....SC
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