497
FXUS63 KDTX 241003
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
603 AM EDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR NEARLY ALL AREAS OUTSIDE
THE THUMB AND SAGINAW BAY AREA.
- LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND BRINGS DRY CONDITIONS. COOL SATURDAY
BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU TONIGHT, AS A WARM AND STABLE PROFILE
UNDER EXISTING RIDGING MAINTAINS A DRY LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. SOME
INTERVALS OF THICKER HIGH BASED CLOUD PLAUSIBLE AT TIMES,
PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE DUMPS IN FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS MAY BEGIN TO GENERATE A FEW INCONSEQUENTIAL SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD WITH TIME
WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* NONE
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT THU APR 24 2025
DISCUSSION...
WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES BUILD INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI IN A
DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS SUBSIDENCE COUPLED WITH ONGOING WAA (WITH MINIMAL
ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE TRANSPORT) LEADS TO DECREASING COLUMN
SATURATION LIMITS CLOUD COVER TO MOSTLY CIRRUS AS WELL AS
SUPPRESSING ANY SHOWERS FROM PASSING SHORTWAVES OVER NORTHERN LOWER
MI. SILL WATCHING FOR ANY POTENTIAL POP-UP (THUNDER)SHOWERS ALONG
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT-LAKE BREEZE HYBRID SINKING OUT OF THE THE
THUMB/SAGINAW VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE ADVERTISING A DRY FROPA GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH REALLY ONLY THE CANADIAN (NH AND RGEM) SHOWING A
NOTEWORTHY SHOWER RESPONSE. FOR THAT REASON, HAVE DROPPED THE 15%
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FRONT DOES LEAD TO A DECENT NORTH-SOUTH
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR
LIKELY REACHING AROUND 80 IF NOT LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS. FOR AREAS TO
THE NORTH THERE'S MORE SENSITIVITY TO THE FRONTAL TIMING TO HOW WARM
TEMPS CAN CLIMB TO. AS IT STANDS CURRENTLY, TIMING LOOKS LATE ENOUGH
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF M-46 TO REACH THE MID 70S WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S NORTH OF 46. LAKESHORE AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN THE THUMB WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 60S.
BEFORE THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW ARRIVES FRIDAY, ANOTHER DUMPY
SHORTWAVE SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
ADVECTING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO SE MI THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING COMBINED WITH DRY
LOW LEVELS SETS UP A LOW PREDICTABILITY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP, HIGH UNCERTAINTY IF THEY WILL HAVE THE
INTENSITY TO REACH THE GROUND VS STAYING VIRGA. KEEPING POPS ONLY IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE (15-20%) FOR THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE HIGHER
VIRGA POTENTIAL. STEADY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES DEVELOP BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
GREAT LAKES INCREASING THE PROBABILITY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL HAVE
MEASURABLE LIQUID AT THE SURFACE. WIDER SPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THEN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AS
THE SURFACE LOW REACHES SOUTHERN LOWER MI PROVIDING STRONGER FORCING
AS DIURNAL HEATING SETS UP A POOL OF SEVERAL HUNDRED TO ~1000 J/KG
OF SBCAPE. SHEAR IS LIMITED, GENERALLY LESS THAN 30KTS, SO ORGANIZED
STRONGER STORM POTENTIAL IS QUITE LOW. ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT
IS DRAGGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT OFFERING
FURTHER PERIODS OF SHOWERS BEFORE CLEARING THE REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING. AVERAGE AREAWIDE QPF STILL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 0.3-0.6"
HOWEVER WITH PWATS OVER 1", HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY WITH ANY
STORM SUPPORTING LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARDS 0.75-1". BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN DRIFTS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
MAINTAINING DRY BUT SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS SATURDAY AS HIGHS TOP OUT
IN THE 50S. TEMPERATURE MODERATION ARRIVES SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES THE AREA BRINGING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S.
MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEFORE
STALLING IN THE VICINITY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. OVERALL, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15
KT OR BELOW. LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE LIKELY OVER SAGINAW
BAY WHEN WIND DIRECTION FLIPS TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE FRONT WHICH MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS LIKELY
LEADING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE HURON FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS WEEKEND TO BRING
LIGHTER WINDS TO THE AREA.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...KDK
MARINE.......TF
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