452
FXUS63 KDTX 071729
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
129 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND SUNNIER TODAY THOUGH SOME HAZE LIKELY LINGERS.
- LOW-END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DAYTIME SUNDAY, MAINLY TOWARDS OHIO.
WIDER SPREAD RAIN ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER FOLLOW FOR MONDAY-
TUESDAY.
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DOMINATES THE FORECAST
WITH PREVAILING VFR AND LIGHT NE TO E WIND THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUD INCREASES THIS EVENING AS MIDWEST
LOW PRESSURE NEARS BUT THE LOWEST 15 KFT REMAIN CLEAR INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON REDEVELOPMENT OF HAZE DUE TO WILDFIRE
SMOKE BUT SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR REMAIN POSSIBLE. LOWER CLOUDS
BEGIN TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE METRO DETROIT SITES AFTER 12Z SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THERE THROUGH THE MORNING.
FOR DTW/D21 CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* NONE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT SAT JUN 7 2025
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO
GOVERN CONDITIONS LOCALLY MAINTAINING DRY NE/ENE FLOW THROUGH THE
DAY. WHILE THERMAL TROUGHING IS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES, PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION BRINGS
CLEARER SKIES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH CIRRUS TIED TO A
COMPACT PLAINS LOW BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS INSOLATION, EVEN WHEN FILTERED BY HIGH CLOUD, ALLOWS HIGHS TO
REACH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80. SMOKE
MODELS KEEP A DEGREE OF NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY
AS WELL SO EXPECTING THE HAZIER SKIES TO CONTINUE.
AFOREMENTIONED PLAINS LOW REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY MORNING. TRENDS AMONGST THE 00Z MODEL SUITE HAVE
FAVORED SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE TRAILING NORTHERN PLAINS
TROUGH/ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH RESULTS IN A FLATTER TRACK
OF THE COMPACT LOW ACROSS OH. HIGHER RES SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE TO
MAINTAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF THE STATE BORDER OWING TO CONTINUING DRY
EASTERLY NEAR-SURFACE FLOW FROM SATURDAY'S NOW DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT ANY RAIN POTENTIAL DAYTIME
SUNDAY WILL BE MORE GLANCING IN NATURE, FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. TRIMMED BACK CHANCE POPS (25-40%) TO AREAS
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96/696 WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES (15-20%) UP TO I-
69. WIDER SPREAD RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE COLD FROPA. GREATEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES STILL
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THANKS THEIR CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE PARENT TROUGH/PV ANOMALY SUPPORTING STRONGER
OVERALL FORCING.
CLOSED UPPER LOW FOLLOWS THIS FRONT AND SLOWLY DRIFTS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK. RENEWED PERIOD OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ACCOMPANY THIS LOW AS 850MB TEMPS FALL BELOW THE
25TH PERCENTILE IN THE MID SINGLE DIGITS (C). COLDER CORE ALOFT WILL
ALSO LEAD TO DIURNALLY STEEPENING LAPSE RATES TO OFFER DISORGANIZED
SHOWER POTENTIAL BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE DAY, SUPPORTING
RELAXED NORTHEAST WINDS/WAVES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MAJORITY OF MODELS
SIGNAL FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE GLANCES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A
SUBSET OF SOLUTIONS THAT CLIP LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST. CLAIR WITH
SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAIN
BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH MID-WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE REGION. EVEN AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE, HOWEVER,
WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH MID-
WEEK WHEN DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....TF
DISCUSSION...KDK
MARINE.......MV
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