648
FXUS63 KDTX 080701
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
301 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
- DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN WARMING FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MID-CLOUD SPILLS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. LOW PASSES TO
OUR SOUTH OVER OHIO RESULTING IN ONLY A GLANCING SHOT AT SEEING
LIGHT SHOWERS. WITH DRY EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR-SURFACE WINDS HOLDING,
HOW WELL THESE SHOWERS SURVIVE NORTH OF STATE BORDER IS SUSPECT. THE
DETROIT TERMINALS STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP SO HAVE
MAINTAINED INHERITED PROB30 FOR A LIGHT MORNING SHOWER. CEILINGS
WITHIN ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD DIP TO ENTRY-LEVEL MVFR. FOR AREAS
NORTH, VIRGA IS MORE PROBABLE SO WILL KEEP NO PRECIP MENTIONS IN
RUNNING FORECAST. A COLD FRONT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS SE MI LATE THIS
EVENING-TONIGHT BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDER SPREAD SHOWERS. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE
QUICKLY WANING WITH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO
HIGHLIGHT. INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT SUPPORTS
CEILINGS FALLING INTO LOW VFR WITH SOLID MVFR (1-2KFT) ACCOMPANYING
SHOWERS.
FOR DTW/D21 CONVECTION...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE EVENING, AFTER 03Z. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT HOWEVER OVERALL POTENTIAL IS
LOW GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING.
THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000FT THIS MORNING INCREASING
TO MEDIUM BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
* LOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM AFTER 03Z MONDAY (LATE SUNDAY EVENING)
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2025
DISCUSSION...
EAST-NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING,
CIRCULATING AROUND AN ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM NRN QUEBEC INTO EASTERN LOWER MI. THE FLOW HAS LARGELY DRIVEN
THE SURFACE SMOKE OUT OF THE AREA FOR THE TIME BEING. SATELLITE DATA
SHOWS MORE WILDFIRE SMOKE ACROSS NRN AND CNTL LAKE HURON, WITH THE
HRRR BRINGING THIS NEAR SFC SMOKE LAYER INTO THE THUMB AND TRI
CITIES REGION THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER LOW NOW CHURNING OVER SASKATCHEWAN IS FORECAST TO DROP
INTO NRN MINNESOTA SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE AMPLIFICATION IN THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND RELATIVELY STRONG
FLOW WILL DRIVE THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ACROSS THE NRN OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES SE MI/ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THIS WAVE WILL ADVECT HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SE MI THIS EVENING, WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. THE OVERALL WEAK LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL SIMPLY WARRANT A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FORECAST HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO THE
LOWER 70S (A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE TRI CITIES WHERE MORE SUN IS
POSSIBLE).
THE LEAD EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE LOWER MI SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING. A STREAM OF MID LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY WITHIN A
NARROW THETA E PLUME WILL ACCOMPANY THE LEAD EDGE OF THE HEIGHT
FALLS. SOME STEEPENING OF THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, LINGERING INTO MON MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE AND
BETTER MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION IS FORECAST ACROSS NRN LOWER MI
AND LAKE HURON, SUPPORTING THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES NORTH. AN AXIS OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE WAVE OF THIS INITIAL THETA E PLUME WILL
LIKELY KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR DECENT DAYTIME INSOLATION WILL BOOST MIXING DEPTHS
AND SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST
TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT, WITH A TRAILING MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING ACROSS SE MI. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WITHIN THIS AXIS OF LARGER SCALE ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
EXIT NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY, THE ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. THE
BETTER CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR WHERE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MU CAPE VALUES WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER.
A TRANSITION TOWARD MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN US IS
FORECAST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS FORECAST TO DRIVER WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION
WED INTO THURSDAY.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS LAKE HURON SUPPORTING LIGHT WINDS AND
LOW WAVES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BEGIN TO VEER MORE EASTERLY TOMORROW IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE. EXPECTING MOST MARINE AREAS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH TOMORROW
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE ERIE TO LAKE ST. CLAIR WHERE SCATTERED
SHOWERS CHANCES EXIST TOMORROW NORTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES THEN ARRIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LOW ENCOMPASSING THE GREAT LAKES AND BRINGS DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MODELS INDICATING WAVES AND WINDS HOLD MOSTLY
BELOW ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA FOR THE BULK OF THIS STRETCH, BUT WILL
MONITOR WIND TRENDS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS PERK
UP AND APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN SOME SPOTS.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......AA
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