536
FXUS63 KDTX 080933
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
533 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
- DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN WARMING FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ONE LAST DAY OF WEAK RIDGING INFLUENCE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
BEFORE THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOWERED HEIGHT ANOMALY DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PERIODIC RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NO ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAINFALL.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE, ADVECTING WITHIN SHORT WAVELENGTH RIDGING, WILL
EXIT ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AND LARGELY PASS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND
OHIO THIS MORNING. THERE ARE SOME SEMBLANCES OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION
OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SHORTWAVE INTO PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE MAIN LIMITATION ON PRECIPITATION EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 8.0 KFT AGL. SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY BUILDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION HOLDING BETWEEN 3.0-4.0 KFT AGL LAYER. SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
WILL BE IN A ZONE FOR SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AS LIGHT
EASTERLIES ARE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION AND ARRIVAL OF THE CYCLONIC
INFLUENCE BRINGS WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW TO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FALLS IN ADDITION TO THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE
COULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER 21Z. HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ARE THEN ANTICIPATED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
AFTER 03Z WITH MAIN MOISTURE ADVECTION AND MAIN THETAE CHANNEL
DRIVING ACROSS THE AREA. BEST STRETCHING DEFORMATION FORCING LOOKS
TO OCCUR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. NO EXPECTATIONS EXIST FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH THE INTERQUARTILE RANGE OF THE EPS BETWEEN
A TENTH AND A THIRD OF AN INCH.
A MID-UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN MONDAY. MORE SUNSHINE IS ANTICIPATED WITH PERSISTENT
MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE EARLY IN THE DAY AND A GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN. THE BASAL PORTION OF THE COMPOSITE TROUGH IS
FORECASTED TO PIVOT INTO A NEGATIVE TILT OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
AFTER 20Z. LIMITING FACTOR MONDAY IS THAT MOISTURE AND THETAE
INCREASES IS LARGELY LIMITED TO ABOVE THE 5.0 KFT AGL LEVEL. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY TO 500 J/KG MUCAPE. QUIET BUT MODESTLY
BREEZIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORTING LOWERING SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 2.0 AND 5.0 KFT AGL.
WILL BE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE
AREA AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE
WEEK. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT THE CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING HOW FAR
UP THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACTIVATE.
WORTH NOTING FORECAST DATA HAS UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS WELL TO THE
NORTH, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE DURATION/LONGEVITY OF ANY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD VARY ACCORDINGLY ACROSS THE
FRONTAL ZONE WITH REFINEMENTS LIKELY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY VEERING IT OUT OF
THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. EXPECTING MOST MARINE AREAS TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE ERIE TO LAKE ST.
CLAIR WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS CHANCES EXIST NORTH OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES THEN
ARRIVE TONIGHT. AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LOW ENCOMPASSING THE GREAT LAKES AND BRINGS DAILY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MODELS INDICATING WAVES AND WINDS HOLD
MOSTLY BELOW ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA FOR THE BULK OF THIS STRETCH, BUT
WILL MONITOR WIND TRENDS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
PERK UP AND APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN SOME
MARINE LOCATIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MID-CLOUD SPILLS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. LOW PASSES TO
OUR SOUTH OVER OHIO RESULTING IN ONLY A GLANCING SHOT AT SEEING
LIGHT SHOWERS. WITH DRY EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR-SURFACE WINDS HOLDING,
HOW WELL THESE SHOWERS SURVIVE NORTH OF STATE BORDER IS SUSPECT. THE
DETROIT TERMINALS STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP SO HAVE
MAINTAINED INHERITED PROB30 FOR A LIGHT MORNING SHOWER. CEILINGS
WITHIN ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD DIP TO ENTRY-LEVEL MVFR. FOR AREAS
NORTH, VIRGA IS MORE PROBABLE SO WILL KEEP NO PRECIP MENTIONS IN
RUNNING FORECAST. A COLD FRONT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS SE MI LATE THIS
EVENING-TONIGHT BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDER SPREAD SHOWERS. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE
QUICKLY WANING WITH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO
HIGHLIGHT. INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT SUPPORTS
CEILINGS FALLING INTO LOW VFR WITH SOLID MVFR (1-2KFT) ACCOMPANYING
SHOWERS.
FOR DTW/D21 CONVECTION...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE EVENING, AFTER 03Z. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT HOWEVER OVERALL POTENTIAL IS
LOW GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING.
THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000FT THIS MORNING INCREASING
TO MEDIUM BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
* LOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM AFTER 03Z MONDAY (LATE SUNDAY EVENING)
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......AA
AVIATION.....CB
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