476
FXUS63 KDTX 081704
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
104 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
- DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN WARMING FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
A LINGERING MID CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.
OVERALL, LINGERING DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND A WEAK GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE CHANCE
FOR SOME LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION FROM KFNT TO KMBS AND
POINTS WEST WHERE DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT REMAINS LOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE DAY DESTABILIZATION. LARGER SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW WILL ALSO
INCREASE IN THIS AREA LATE IN THE EVENING. THIS LARGER SCALE ASCENT,
COMBINED WITH A NARROW AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL
BE WEAK, HOWEVER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SEEMS WARRANTED GIVEN THE
ASCENT.
FOR DTW/D21 CONVECTION...A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE METRO AIRSPACE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS LOW CHANCE FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN THESE SHOWERS.
THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
* MODERATE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 533 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
DISCUSSION...
ONE LAST DAY OF WEAK RIDGING INFLUENCE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
BEFORE THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOWERED HEIGHT ANOMALY DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PERIODIC RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NO ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAINFALL.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE, ADVECTING WITHIN SHORT WAVELENGTH RIDGING, WILL
EXIT ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AND LARGELY PASS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND
OHIO THIS MORNING. THERE ARE SOME SEMBLANCES OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION
OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SHORTWAVE INTO PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE MAIN LIMITATION ON PRECIPITATION EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 8.0 KFT AGL. SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY BUILDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION HOLDING BETWEEN 3.0-4.0 KFT AGL LAYER. SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
WILL BE IN A ZONE FOR SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AS LIGHT
EASTERLIES ARE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION AND ARRIVAL OF THE CYCLONIC
INFLUENCE BRINGS WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW TO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FALLS IN ADDITION TO THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE
COULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER 21Z. HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ARE THEN ANTICIPATED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
AFTER 03Z WITH MAIN MOISTURE ADVECTION AND MAIN THETAE CHANNEL
DRIVING ACROSS THE AREA. BEST STRETCHING DEFORMATION FORCING LOOKS
TO OCCUR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. NO EXPECTATIONS EXIST FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH THE INTERQUARTILE RANGE OF THE EPS BETWEEN
A TENTH AND A THIRD OF AN INCH.
A MID-UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN MONDAY. MORE SUNSHINE IS ANTICIPATED WITH PERSISTENT
MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE EARLY IN THE DAY AND A GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN. THE BASAL PORTION OF THE COMPOSITE TROUGH IS
FORECASTED TO PIVOT INTO A NEGATIVE TILT OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
AFTER 20Z. LIMITING FACTOR MONDAY IS THAT MOISTURE AND THETAE
INCREASES IS LARGELY LIMITED TO ABOVE THE 5.0 KFT AGL LEVEL. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY TO 500 J/KG MUCAPE. QUIET BUT MODESTLY
BREEZIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORTING LOWERING SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 2.0 AND 5.0 KFT AGL.
WILL BE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE
AREA AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE
WEEK. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT THE CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING HOW FAR
UP THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACTIVATE.
WORTH NOTING FORECAST DATA HAS UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS WELL TO THE
NORTH, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE DURATION/LONGEVITY OF ANY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD VARY ACCORDINGLY ACROSS THE
FRONTAL ZONE WITH REFINEMENTS LIKELY.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY VEERING IT OUT OF
THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. EXPECTING MOST MARINE AREAS TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE ERIE TO LAKE ST.
CLAIR WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS CHANCES EXIST NORTH OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES THEN
ARRIVE TONIGHT. AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LOW ENCOMPASSING THE GREAT LAKES AND BRINGS DAILY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MODELS INDICATING WAVES AND WINDS HOLD
MOSTLY BELOW ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA FOR THE BULK OF THIS STRETCH, BUT
WILL MONITOR WIND TRENDS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
PERK UP AND APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN SOME
MARINE LOCATIONS.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......AA
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