163
FXUS63 KDTX 081854
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
254 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE,
WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DID INCREASE POPS AND TRIED TO REFINE
THE TIMING OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT, BUT INSTABILITY REALLY WANES AS WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING SO DO NOT EXPECTED ANY SEVERE
WEATHER TONIGHT.
BY MONDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT EXITS EAST OF THE AREA. BEHIND THE
FRONT, GRADIENT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING INCREASE. WIND GUSTS ARE
FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND 20-25 MPH. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS THE THUMB AND DOWN INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL LOW USHERS IN COOLER
AIR ALOFT AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS MONDAY. THE COMBO OF DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPER LAPSE
RATES ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO RESULT IN AROUND 500-800 J/KG OF MUCAPE,
THIS COUPLED WITH 40+ KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
HIGHLIGHT SOME CONCERNS FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS. WITH ABOUT HALF
(OR MORE AT TIMES) OF THE MUCAPE FOCUSED IN THE HAIL GROWTH REGION
AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR, MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. GIVEN THE INCREASED MOMENTUM ALOFT, STRONGER
STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCE 40+ MPH WINDS.
MONDAY NIGHT WE GRADUALLY LOSE ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE
IN THE EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LINGER
ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOBE OF VORTICITY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW ROTATES DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY, THE PESKY
UPPER LOW EXITS THE AREA. WE THEN FIND OURSELVES UNDER BROAD WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SLOW-MOVING FRONT UPSTREAM OF THE AREA.
WITH A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION, IT DOES LOOK LIKE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS ACTIVE
MID TO LATE WEEK. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE FORECAST
EVOLVES, SPECIFICALLY WHERE ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOCUS, BUT
CERTAINLY A PERIOD OF TIME TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
MARINE
AN UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE GREAT LAKES THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS STRETCH BEGINS WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS CURRENTLY OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH, BUT REMAIN
LIGHT. AN UPPER LOW THEN FILLS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, MAINLY TIED TO PEAK
HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED,
BUT LOCALLY ELEVATED WINDS/WAVES, LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, AND HEAVY
RAIN ARE ALL POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ENHANCE WINDS AND WAVES
FOR SAGINAW BAY ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ALTHOUGH OTHER MARINE ZONES LOOK TO STAY HEADLINE-FREE
THROUGH THE WEEK. STILL, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS
TO GLANCE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH MAINTAINS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
AVIATION...
A LINGERING MID CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.
OVERALL, LINGERING DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND A WEAK GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE CHANCE
FOR SOME LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION FROM KFNT TO KMBS AND
POINTS WEST WHERE DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT REMAINS LOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF LATE DAY DESTABILIZATION. LARGER SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW WILL ALSO
INCREASE IN THIS AREA LATE IN THE EVENING. THIS LARGER SCALE ASCENT,
COMBINED WITH A NARROW AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL
BE WEAK, HOWEVER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SEEMS WARRANTED GIVEN THE
ASCENT.
FOR DTW/D21 CONVECTION...A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE METRO AIRSPACE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS LOW CHANCE FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN THESE SHOWERS.
THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
* MODERATE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JA
MARINE.......MV
AVIATION.....SC
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