374
FXUS63 KDTX 082354
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
754 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
MOSTLY VFR SKIES WILL BEGIN THIS TAF PERIOD ASIDE FROM THE LINGERING
MVFR VSBYS FROM HAZE. A NARROW NE TO SW AXIS OF MOISTURE IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS MICHIGAN AND WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TERMINALS BETWEEN 01Z AND 08Z. WILL SEE MOSTLY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS, BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. THE INSTABILITY WILL WANE FURTHER INTO
TONIGHT. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INBOUND
MOISTURE, BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THIS MOISTURE
AXIS WITH WINDS TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING IN SPEED
TOMORROW MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING LATE IN THIS TAF PERIOD.
FOR DTW/D21 CONVECTION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SW TO
NE ORIENTED MOISTURE AXIS MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THESE
MOISTURE AXIS.ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
* MODERATE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
DISCUSSION...
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE,
WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DID INCREASE POPS AND TRIED TO REFINE
THE TIMING OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT, BUT INSTABILITY REALLY WANES AS WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING SO DO NOT EXPECTED ANY SEVERE
WEATHER TONIGHT.
BY MONDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT EXITS EAST OF THE AREA. BEHIND THE
FRONT, GRADIENT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING INCREASE. WIND GUSTS ARE
FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND 20-25 MPH. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS THE THUMB AND DOWN INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL LOW USHERS IN COOLER
AIR ALOFT AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS MONDAY. THE COMBO OF DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPER LAPSE
RATES ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO RESULT IN AROUND 500-800 J/KG OF MUCAPE,
THIS COUPLED WITH 40+ KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
HIGHLIGHT SOME CONCERNS FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS. WITH ABOUT HALF
(OR MORE AT TIMES) OF THE MUCAPE FOCUSED IN THE HAIL GROWTH REGION
AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR, MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. GIVEN THE INCREASED MOMENTUM ALOFT, STRONGER
STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCE 40+ MPH WINDS.
MONDAY NIGHT WE GRADUALLY LOSE ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE
IN THE EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LINGER
ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOBE OF VORTICITY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW ROTATES DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY, THE PESKY
UPPER LOW EXITS THE AREA. WE THEN FIND OURSELVES UNDER BROAD WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SLOW-MOVING FRONT UPSTREAM OF THE AREA.
WITH A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION, IT DOES LOOK LIKE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS ACTIVE
MID TO LATE WEEK. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE FORECAST
EVOLVES, SPECIFICALLY WHERE ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOCUS, BUT
CERTAINLY A PERIOD OF TIME TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
MARINE...
AN UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE GREAT LAKES THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS STRETCH BEGINS WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS CURRENTLY OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH, BUT REMAIN
LIGHT. AN UPPER LOW THEN FILLS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, MAINLY TIED TO PEAK
HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED,
BUT LOCALLY ELEVATED WINDS/WAVES, LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, AND HEAVY
RAIN ARE ALL POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ENHANCE WINDS AND WAVES
FOR SAGINAW BAY ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ALTHOUGH OTHER MARINE ZONES LOOK TO STAY HEADLINE-FREE
THROUGH THE WEEK. STILL, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS
TO GLANCE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH MAINTAINS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....AA
DISCUSSION...JA
MARINE.......MV
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