626
FXUS63 KDTX 090746
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
346 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE AFTER 3PM WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. THERE
IS A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.
- A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S AND DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 60 DEGREES.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.
- LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
MAIN THETAE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN MINNESOTA CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. HIRES SIGNAL SUGGESTS THE LAST OF THE ACTIVITY MAY STREAK
AGAIN JUST EAST OF THE CWA OVER LAKE ERIE BETWEEN 10-13Z IN RESPONSE
TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK FGEN RESPONSE. A MID-UPPER DRY SLOT
WILL THEN BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. SUNNIER SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED LEADING TO
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S. WITH FULL INSOLATION LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION SUGGESTS THAT SB/ML CAPE WILL REACH TO LESS THAN 750
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/IMPACT THE AREA FOR A
PORTION OF THE 21Z-03Z TIME WINDOW. DO EXPECT A REASONABLY GOOD
RESPONSE/LIFT AS BASAL PORTION OF THE COMPOSITE TROUGH AND MAIN
ABSOLUTE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL NEGATIVELY PIVOT DIRECTLY THROUGH
THE AREA. THE STRONGEST STORM MAY BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
WIND GUST GIVEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDING, HOWEVER, THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE VIGOR. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS MAY BE BETWEEN 21-23Z AS SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A
QUICK GUSTING OUT/REESTABLISHMENT OF A SECONDARY INSTABILITY
GRADIENT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
THE LATEST SPC SWODY1 HAS INCLUDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT DEEPLY STABLE
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 2.5 AND 12.5 KFT AGL TO BEGIN THE DAY. A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE LATE AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL THEN RISE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH VACATING THE REGION. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE, WITH HEIGHTS REMAINING
SUFFICIENTLY SUPPRESSED OVER MUCH OF EASTERN CANADA. A MODEL SIGNAL
EXISTS THAT QUASI STATIONARY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN TAKE
SHAPE AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND PERHAPS NEXT
WEEKEND. WIDELY VARYING HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY RESULT ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY SETTING THE STAGES FOR THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO BE IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON WHERE ACTIVITY WOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND WHETHER OR NOT ANY LARGER SCALE MCS
SYSTEMS WOULD TRACK THROUGH. MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW PREDICTABILITY AND LOW CONFIDENCE
THURSDAY - SUNDAY.
MARINE
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE IN PLACE AS OF THIS MORNING AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH LAST EVENING. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
DEPART INTO CANADA BY DAYBREAK, WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING
WHETHER ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (ROUGHLY 4PM TO MIDNIGHT EDT) TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IF
STORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY MAY BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
AND/OR WIND GUSTS 34+ KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN ATTEMPTS TO BUILD
NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL BE
BRIEF AS A GLANCING NORTHERN STREAM LOW SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE NEXT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE FRONT SINKS ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING, WINDS/WAVES WILL ELEVATED TOWARD
HEADLINE CRITERIA ESPECIALLY FOR THE SAGINAW BAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1209 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2025
AVIATION...
A NE TO SW AXIS OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ACROSS MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTH HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY PUSHING ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY INTO THE THUMB AT PRESS.
ONCE SHOWERS EXIT TO THE EAST, MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH VFR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH DAYTIME MIXING OFFERING GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
BY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WILL ARRIVE WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR DTW/D21 CONVECTION...NO THUNDER EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH THE OVERALL WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE DTW
CORRIDOR. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. MEDIUM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
* MEDIUM IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......MV
AVIATION.....AA
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