785
FXUS63 KDTX 100428
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1228 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY TOMORROW WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S.
- A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND THE AREA WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
AVIATION
VFR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AS A DRY SLOT MOVES OVERHEAD RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE
EXPECTATION FOR A SCT TO BKN DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD AT AROUND 3-5 KFT
TO DEVELOP AS DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES. LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD YIELD WESTERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS AT THE SURFACE DURING DAYTIME MIXING.
FOR DTW/D21 CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2025
DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL PV ADVECTION, MODEST INSTABILITY AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY SUFFICIENT
TO GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING. STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS (50-60 KNOTS) AND INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS/DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL DRAWS CONCERN FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, WITH THE MAIN TIME WINDOW BEING 21-
2Z. STILL UNCERTAINTY IF UPDRAFT STRENGTH/CAPES WILL BE SUFFICIENT,
AS SURFACE DEW PTS HAVE NUDGED LOWER INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
WITH THE INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYERS TAPPING INTO DRY MID LEVEL AIR. AS
OF 18Z, MLCAPES UNDER 250 J/KG OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. BETTER
INSTABILITY (MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG) RIGHT NEAR THE COLD CORE (-22 C
AT 500 MB) ACROSS FAR WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN, WHICH IMPINGES ON THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA BY 00Z. MACHINE LEARNING SUGGESTING 15% PROB
FOR WIND, AND THUS SPC LOOKS TO HAVE MATCHED WITH THE SLIGHT UPGRADE.
FAVORABLE FREEZING LEVELS SUPPORT A SECONDARY MARGINAL HAIL THREAT
AS WELL.
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO REBOUND ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
AXIS LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY, CAPES UP TO 500 J/KG, AND A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO
CAN'T BE RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN THUMB REGION.
FURTHER HEIGHT RISES ON WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST CONFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A NARROW BUT HEALTHY MOISTURE AXIS TO
SINK SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY. LOCAL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MLCAPES AROUND 1000
J/KG, BUT IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A SUFFICIENT CAP IN THE 5-8 KFT
LAYER TO PREVENT ACTIVITY FROM GOING UP AND WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY
FORECAST. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TAPS INTO SOME OF THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER, BUT MIXING
MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF 850 MB LEVEL IF WE CU UP SIGNIFICANTLY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO END THE WORK WEEK INTO FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND RIDING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVITY TO CLOSE
OUT THE WORK WEEK INTO THE EVENING AS AN EVEN STRONGER SHORTWAVE
EJECTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH LOWER MI THIS EVENING.
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST,
BUT SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. THE FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA, MAINLY LAKE HURON
BUT WITH A LOWER CHANCE SOUTHWARD. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS AND SOME HAIL, BUT THE LINE OF
STORM MAY BE WEAKENING BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE LAKES. WE WILL
REMAIN IN THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL
KEEP WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN
BELOW 20 KNOTS. GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING
FRONT DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD. THIS COULD ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
WHICH COULD NECESSITATE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SOME NEARSHORE
ZONES.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ421-422.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....AA
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......DRK
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