552
FXUS63 KDTX 101714
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
114 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
- MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S.
- A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND THE AREA WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
AVIATION
SCT TO BKN DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET. THE WSW WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING NEAR 12-15KTS WITH
GUSTS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 20KTS. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 5KTS. ANOTHER WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRINGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE DAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THERE WILL SCT AC AS THE WSW
WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS.
FOR DTW/D21 CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. LOW BY
EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2025
DISCUSSION...
LARGE WAVELENGTH LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND THE EASTERN U.P. WILL STEADILY FILL TODAY AS THE SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS INTO AN OPEN WAVE. PHASING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH SOUTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL ALSO
CAUSE IT TO ACCELERATE AS IT PUSHES INTO QUEBEC LATE THIS MORNING.
THE WAVELENGTH IS GREAT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HEART OF THE MIDLEVEL
COLD AIR, 775MB TEMPERATURES OF APPROXIMATELY 2-3C, IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
IN ENOUGH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY, 250 J/KG, CENTERED AT 5.0-6.0 KFT AGL THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME CONFLICTING MODEL SIGNAL ON WHETHER OR NOT FREE CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE BUT THE CUMULUS RESPONSE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ROBUST. THE
CHANCE FOR ISO-SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST AFTER 20Z AND WILL MAINTAIN
THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE THUMB. THE MAIN
NARRATIVE FOR TODAY MAY BE THE BREEZY WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.
THIS FLOW WILL AID DEEP MECHANICAL MIXING THAT SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES OVERACHIEVE SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 70S.
THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS TO
RISE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DIFFERENTIALLY. INCREASED THICKNESS WILL
ALLOW FOR A SURGE IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING SOLID LOW TO MID 80S. A NOTABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS
ALSO ANTICIPATED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 DEGREES. DESPITE THE MOISTURE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ACTIVE
SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED CAPPING/CIN IN THE 3.5 TO 8.0 KFT AGL
LAYER. IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO ENVISION A SCENARIO WITH
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY.
MODELS REMAIN STEADFAST IN SUGGESTING THAT A STRONGLY STABLE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN
ONTARIO THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWING AND PUTTING ON THE BRAKES. IN FACT,
THE MODELS SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE UNTIL SUNDAY FOR THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH TO PUSH THROUGH QUEBEC. THE POSITIONING OF THIS IS
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WITH A LAKE MODIFICATION COMPONENT ALLOWING A QUASI-
STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTLING AND SHARPENING OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN. WIDELY VARYING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THIS BOUNDARY. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN BOTH
WHERE ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND WHETHER OR NOT
ANY LARGER SCALE MCS SYSTEMS WILL TRACK ALONG IT. ALOT OF BOOM OR
BUST POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH THIS BOUNDARY. STILL A LONG WAYS AWAY TO
PROVIDE MUCH COMMENTARY AND WILL REFRAIN FROM ANY DRY PERIODS.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF SOME ELEVATED WINDS AND GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS
THROUGH THE SAGINAW BAY THIS MORNING WITH THE FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST
FETCH, LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINING LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED LIGHT POP UP SHOWER, DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN BRING THE CHANCE FOR ELEVATED
SHOWERS MAINLY FOR NORTHERN LAKE HURON TOMORROW AND WILL AGAIN
PRODUCE SOME FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FETCH FOR THE SAGINAW BAY WHICH
BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES TO SEE WINDS AOA 20 KNOTS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR REPEATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....RBP
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......AM
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