092
FXUS63 KDTX 101920
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
320 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE TRI-
CITIES AND THUMB AREAS; A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- MUCH WARMER WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND BECOMING DRIER.
- COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS IN ATOP THICKENING DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD
AS THERMAL TROUGHING ENCOMPASSES THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DEEP-LAYER
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH STRUCTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS TRANSIT THE BASE OF THE SYNOPTIC WAVE FEATURE OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN. NOT MUCH OF A PRECIPITATION RESPONSE TO NOTE GIVEN
DRY BOUNDARY-LAYER AND UPPER LEVELS, BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES (SFC-800
MB) OF 7-8 C/KM HAVE GENERATED SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY. MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE WARMING OFFSETS CONVECTIVE PRODUCTIVITY HEADING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS THUS KEEPING UPDRAFTS BRIEF/SHALLOW, FAVORING JUST
VIRGA AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. KEPT POPS LOW (15-25 PERCENT) AND
MORE BROAD BRUSHED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON GIVEN MODEST SPREAD
AMONGST THE 12Z SOLUTIONS REGARDING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LATEST
KDTX RADAR SUPPORTS THIS TREND. WINDS/GUSTS DROP- OFF QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET AND BACK SOUTHWESTERLY.
HEIGHT RISES COMMENCE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE FEATURES UNIFY
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER COLUMN FLOW TAKES ON A MORE
WSW TRAJECTORY. THIS SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GULF CONNECTION
WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AS THE FEED MERGES WITH A PLUME OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.
THIS AIRMASS THEN GRADUALLY SLIDES IN FROM WEST AS PART OF A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MARKED BY 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 13C TO 15C.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S WEDNESDAY, BUT WITH DRIER
AIR WITHIN THE 900-800 MB LAYER, NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. QUITE A BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
FOR MOST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW REFLECTED FROM A SPEED
MAX THEN DESCENDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE STRAITS BRINGING
POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, YET
TIMING CONTINUES TO GET PUSHED BACK WITH EASTERN EXTENT. DID DELAY
POPS UNTIL LATER THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-75/US-23.
THE WARM FRONT GETS DISPLACED AS THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. MOISTURE PROGS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE UNREMARKABLE IN TERMS OF DEPTH AND QUALITY WHICH LIMITS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. SPATIALLY, SHOWERS SHOULD GENERALLY FOCUS ALONG THE
COMPOSITE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH STALLS SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL LOWER. ENSEMBLE FAMILIES ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH
POSITIONING AND FORTITUDE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WHILE THE NAM/GEM ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF. IT'S POSSIBLE FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO ARISE,
TOO. PATTERN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND CHARACTERIZED AS COOL AND
UNSETTLED WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW, GOVERNED BY ONTARIO SURFACE
RIDGE, LOCKING THE STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS PROVIDES A
PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE AXIS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING TIMING, COVERAGE, AND INTENSITY
SPECIFICS. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PHASING FRIDAY SOMETIME WITHIN THE
FRIDAY PM TO SATURDAY AM WINDOW OFFERS SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
ACTIVITY. SEASONABLY WARMER READINGS RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
80S.
MARINE
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO SOME STRONGER WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER
SAGINAW BAY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT OTHERWISE WINDS ARE JUST LIGHT OVER
THE REST OF THE LAKE HURON AND ST. CLAIR WATERS. OUTSIDE OF AN
ISOLATED LIGHT POP UP SHOWER THIS EVENING OVER LAKE HURON, AND
TOMORROW FOR FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
LAKES THERE WILL BE SOME FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FETCH FOR THE SAGINAW
BAY WHICH BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES TO SEE WINDS AOA 20 KNOTS. WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REST OF THE NEARSHORE AREAS AS WELL AS LAKES
ST. CLAIR AND ERIE WILL ALSO BE 15-20 KTS. THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS
AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE FRONT SETTLING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKES, WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TO EASTERLIES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2025
AVIATION...
SCT TO BKN DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET. THE WSW WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING NEAR 12-15KTS WITH
GUSTS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 20KTS. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 5KTS. ANOTHER WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRINGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE DAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THERE WILL SCT AC AS THE WSW
WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS.
FOR DTW/D21 CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. LOW BY
EVENING.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......RBP
AVIATION.....RBP
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