859
FXUS63 KDTX 112251
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
651 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS WANE THIS EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, NORTH OF I-69.
- COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A STEADY DECREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS/GUSTS THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
SE MI LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN A WIND
SHIFT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. AN OVERALL WEAK GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE ELEVATED PORTION OF THE
FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT INTERVALS OF HIGHER BASED CLOUDS. A
GENERAL LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES
ALONG THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIMITED, GENERALLY 30 PERCENT OR LESS.
REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY TRACK INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY
REGION OVERNIGHT. WANING INSTABILITY LEAVES THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW
BUT ENOUGH SUPPORT REMAINS TO JUSTIFY THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AT MBS.
FOR DTW/D21 CONVECTION...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE <20 PERCENT FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AIRSPACE ON THURSDAY.
THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2025
DISCUSSION...
NOTABLY WARMER THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SITUATES WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRESSURE SET TO CROSS CENTRAL LAKE HURON THIS
EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESENTING WELL WITH A SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT
FORCING RATHER STRONG PREVAILING WINDS IN ITS VICINITY. THIS ALSO
CORRELATES WITH THE MOST POTENT GUST RESPONSE FOR THE REST OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AS THE MIXED LAYER ACCESSES 35-40 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET
WINDS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE THUMB REGION, AS THE LOW EXITS. TEMPERATURES
ARE NEARING DAYTIME HIGHS, IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, AS ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST FEEDS WARM ADVECTION ALONG
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORIES.
CROSS-MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DESCENDS UPON
LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AFTER
06Z THURSDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT LIFTS 850-700 MB
LAYER DEWPOINTS, MAINLY NORTH OF I-69, WHICH FAVORS SOME BROKEN
SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL SLOPE. PART OF THIS
ACTIVITY ALSO HINGES ON THE PHASING OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION/MCS
TRACKING ALONG I-90 OVER IA/MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE A
SHALLOW LAYER OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES (ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF 100-
250 J/KG) WITHIN THE 800-500 MB LAYER, BUT THIS WILL STEADILY ERODE
SOUTHWARD AS THE FRONT ARRIVES AND STRUGGLES TO ACTIVATE THE THETAE
PLUME. ULTIMATELY, EXPECTATIONS FOR THUNDER TREND LOWER, BUT SUPPORT
FOR A QPF PRESENCE IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE 12Z DATA, ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF M-46 (EXCLUDING THE OPERATIONAL GFS) AS A LOBE OF CVA
EJECTS WITH PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
THE FRONT GETS HUNG-UP OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY
WHICH FUNCTIONS AS A RESIDENT FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK AND AT LEAST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COULD LINGER INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS AMIDST PROLONGED MOISTURE TRANSPORT. HIGHS SETTLE BACK
TO MID-JUNE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THURSDAY WITH ENE COOL ADVECTION
OFF LAKE HURON LEADING TO NOTABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WHERE LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES WILL STRUGGLE TO
BREAK THE 70F MARK AND 80S MORE LIKELY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94. WEAK
SIGNAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO FIRE OFF THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHWEST
LOWER THURSDAY EVENING ALONG THE CAPE GRADIENT. BASED ON 0-6 KM
SHEAR VECTORS, PROPAGATION COULD EXTEND INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA, THUS THE SLIGHT RISK (20 PERCENT POP) THURSDAY
EVENING.
NEBULOUS FORCING FIELD EXISTS INTO THE SHORT-TERM AND EXTENDED
FORECAST RANGE WITH ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONVECTION. PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED AS A BIT COOL WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW, GOVERNED
BY RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THIS LOCKS THE STATIONARY FRONT INTO A
PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE AXIS WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING TIMING, COVERAGE, AND INTENSITY. ONE OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS ENSUES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENGAGES AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH.
80 DEGREE (F) TEMPERATURES RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EASE SOUTHWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. EXISTENCE OF A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITHIN THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN LIGHTER WINDS THURSDAY.
SOME STRENGTHENING OF NORTHEAST WIND WILL OCCUR FRIDAY ACROSS LAKE
HURON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES SOUTH OF THE HIGH. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......MR
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