176
FXUS63 KDTX 121953
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
353 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WEST OF US-23.
- COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY TO START THE NEW WEEK WITH 80S ON
SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER 80S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION WITH SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE AREA SOUTHWARD OUT OF ONTARIO. THE EASTERLY FLOW
BRINGING A STEADY FEED OF DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WHICH HELPED KEEP
EARLY DAY SHOWERS TO A MINIMUM AS THE 700MB FGEN BAND WEAKENED,
RESULTING IN A DRY DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. FOR TONIGHT, THE
ACTIVATED ELEVATED PORTION OF THE FRONT RESIDES WELL TO OUR NORTH
OVER NORTHERN LOWER WITH A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTING UP TOWARD THE REGION SO REALLY NO FORCING TO HELP DEVELOP
ANY SHOWERS LOCALLY. A RIPPLE IN THE SURFACE FRONT OVER SW LOWER MAY
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING WITH SOME
CAMS ADVERTISING THEM TO DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE US23 CORRIDOR.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN MUCH COVERAGE WITH THIS SO WILL KEEP A ISOLATED
POP MENTION FOR THE FAR WEST.
QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH ELEVATED FORCING CAN EMANATE AWAY
FROM THE UPPER LOW AS IT LIFTS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO SOUTHERN LOWER...WHILE A SHEARING OUT
SHORTWAVE RIPPLES THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER AT THE SAME TIME? WE'LL
HAVE SOME MENTION OF POPS FOR THE FAR NORTH AND SOUTH WHILE
LOCATIONS AROUND M59 TO I69 STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF STAYING DRY
THROUGH THE STRETCH. HARD TO FIND MUCH OF ANY INSTABILITY IN THE
MODELS SO WE'LL HOLD THUNDER OUT WHILE MENTIONING SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY OFFERS A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SE
AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
COMPLETELY KEEPING SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS LOWER MI SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS TO START THE WEEK WITH ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES
PASSING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA WILL ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE
BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE WARMER TEMPS ARE ON THE WAY WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AT LEAST.
MARINE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON MAINTAINING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH
LIGHTER WINDS. OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC, WHILE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTH. NORTHEAST WINDS
ON FRIDAY WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ACROSS LAKE
HURON, WITH 25 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAGINAW BAY. SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, WITH SEVERE WEATHER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK IN ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2025
AVIATION...
STEADY STREAM OF MID/HIGH CLOUD HAS STARTED TO ERODE AS THE
RESPONSIBLE MID-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE IS DISLODGED NORTH BY A WEDGE OF
DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS DRIER AIR PRECEDES THE NEXT UPPER LOW THAT WILL
LIFT TOWARD THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND GENERATE
INTERVALS OF LOW VFR (4.0 TO 6.0 KFT CEILINGS) FRIDAY MORNING.
DEPENDING ON COLUMN MOISTURE, THIS CLOUD DECK COULD EVEN SQUEEZE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER. ALTHOUGH THE ELEVATED FRONT IS OVERHEAD, THE
SURFACE FRONT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE AIRSPACE. THERE IS A STRONG
SIGNAL IN THE HI-RES GUIDANCE THAT THE LAKE BREEZE WILL REINFORCE
POSITIONING OF THE FRONT AND KEEP ANY CONVECTION SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE AIRSPACE THIS EVENING. WITH THE FRONT HOLDING TO OUR SOUTH,
LIGHT WINDS (5-8 KNOTS) GENERALLY HOLD BETWEEN 60 AND 100 DEGREES
(ENE TO E) THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR DTW/D21 CONVECTION...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STAY
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AIRSPACE THIS EVENING.
THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......SS
AVIATION.....MV
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