148
FXUS63 KDTX 131134
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
734 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
MAINLY FOR I-94 SOUTH.
- WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN BACK TO THE
80S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN RESIDES BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS IN/OH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AIDE IN KEEPING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
MBS, FNT AND MORE THAN LIKELY PTK THROUGH TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE SOUTH WILL WORK NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY AND STALL OUT AGAIN NEAR THE
SOUTHERN BORDER AS A SURFACE WAVE MOVES OUT OF MO. INCREASED ASCENT
ALOFT WILL BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-94 CORRIDOR. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN METRO
TERMINALS WILL BE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS IN THE LOW VFR TO MVFR RANGE
UNDER ANY RAIN SHOWERS. AN EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT WILL HOLD
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WINDS HOLD MOSTLY BELOW 10 KNOTS.
NORTHEAST WINDS OFF SAGINAW BAY MAY BRING SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
SPEEDS TO MBS THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR DTW/D21 CONVECTION...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM APPEARS UNLIKELY
WITH ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
* LOW TO MEDIUM FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5,000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2025
DISCUSSION...
THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WILL PIVOT NORTH IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE
MID-LEVEL WAVE PRESENTLY NOW OVER MISSOURI. THIS BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN
STALL OUT IN RESPONSE TO DRY ENE FLOW FROM A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH WILL OPPOSE MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM
WAVE. THIS SETUP WILL ESTABLISH A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN, THROUGH NO PHYSICAL IMPACTS (E.G. APPRECIABLE
RAIN) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF A LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS GIVEN SUBTLE
ELEVATED FORCING IN PLACE.
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE EXTENDS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. IN RESPONSE, APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL
LIKELY BE OBSERVED THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS WITH SYSTEM-RELATIVE
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTING ELEVATED MOIST ASCENT THROUGH 850
TO 400MB. OTHERWISE, WILL PRECLUDE THUNDER MENTIONS GIVEN POOR MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE ONE CAVEAT NOTED IN
THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE -- WHILE THE HREF LPMM QPF RETAINS ANY HIGHER
END RAINFALL TOTALS HOLDING SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE, EPS OUTLIER
SOLUTIONS HIGHLIGHTS ~15-20 PERCENT OF THE SOLUTION SPACE PRODUCING
RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AROUND AND SOUTH OF I-94, WHICH
IS A SOLUTION ALSO BEING REFLECTED IN THE LATEST 06Z HRRR. THIS WOULD
BE OWING TO STRONG MIDLEVEL FORCING IN WHICH CASE, THE THERMODYNAMIC
FORCING ALONE WOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
SOME EXTENDED PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVER RAINFALL. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE, IT REMAINS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO MAKE IT NORTH OF I-94 THROUGH
ABOUT M59, HOWEVER, POP VALUES RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY CLOSER TO THE
MI/OH BORDER, ALIGNING WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE FAVORABLE
ASCENT.
LINGERING RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE TOMORROW
MORNING UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES,
DISSOLVING MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM RETURN FLOW OF THE DEPARTING HIGH
IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BRINGS INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET PROGRESSIVELY WARMER LEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, PEAKING IN THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 80S BY MONDAY-
TUESDAY, PENDING ANY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MISSOURI AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE CONDITIONS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE REGION. NORTHEAST
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ACROSS LAKE
HURON, WITH 25 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAGINAW BAY. SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, WITH SEVERE WEATHER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK IN ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR LHZ421-422.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....AA
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......SS
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page