321
FXUS63 KDTX 131028
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
628 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS POPPING UP ALONG OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
- HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.
- HEAT RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
COLD FRONT ON PACE TO CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AIRSPACE THIS
MORNING. SOME VARIABILITY IN BOTH COVERAGE AND BASE OF EXISTING
CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS MAINTAINS A BRIEF WINDOW
YET THIS MORNING FOR SOME POCKETS OF LIFR OR MVFR TO PERSIST OR
EMERGE, BEFORE GREATER DRYING COMMENCES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHER
BASED VFR DIURNAL CU EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE DETROIT
AIRSPACE TODAY, BUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
HIGHLIGHT. POST-FRONTAL WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH MODEST SPEED
TODAY, THEN SHIFTING TO NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT.
FOR DTW/D21 CONVECTION...LOW POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
AROUND THE DTW AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5 KFT THIS MORNING.
* VERY LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PASSING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MI EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE BACKSIDE OF THE 700MB MOISTURE PLUME STILL RESIDES
OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH SOME SKINNY ELEVATED CAPE SO WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GOING FOR ANY POP UP SHOWERS THAT USE UP
THE REST OF THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY (LIKE THE CELL POPPING UP
OVER SOUTHERN HURON COUNTY AT 07Z). THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
PRETTY DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THIS MOISTURE AXIS HANGING UP
OVER FAR SOUTHERN MI. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE
MID 60S TO 70 RANGE UNTIL A SECONDARY FRONT (DEWPOINT GRADIENT)
KNOCKS THEM DOWN INTO THE LOW-MID 60S BY LATE EVENING. FLOW ALOFT IS
TURNING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT LEADING TO CONFLUENT
MID LEVEL FLOW WITH RAPID DRYING AND WARMING IN THE 700-500MB LAYER
PUTTING A GOOD CAP ON MOST OF THE REGION. CAMS TRY TO INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND SAGINAW BAY ON A SURFACE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY COMING
IN OFF THE LAKE PULLING A PLUME OF MOISTURE OFF THE WARM WATERS, BUT
THINK THE LACK OF SUPPORT IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE TOO MUCH TO
OVERCOME. HIGH TEMPS WILL GET BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
DETROIT METRO BUT WILL FEEL LESS HUMID WITH THE FALL DEWPOINTS.
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY,
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND THIS SURFACE RIDGE
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S
FOR THE THUMB WITH THE AIR COMING OFF THE LAKE, WHILE THE REST OF
THE INTERIOR PART OF THE CWA REACHES THE LOW-MID 80S. FRIDAY LOOKS
TO STAY QUIET AS PSEUDO ZONAL FLOW ATOP SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD HELP
KEEP THE AREA DRY. MODELS SHOW ACTIVITY UPSTREAM WITH SOME MVCS
DEVELOPING WITH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED, BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS TO
STAY AWAY FROM US.TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT, RISING A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO AMPLIFY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
500MB TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 590 DAM BUILDING INTO THE AREA. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL HELP ADVECT VERY WARM AIR UPSTREAM INTO THE REGION AS WELL
HELPING TO BRING 90S MACK INTO THE MIX FOR SATURDAY. THIS LEVEL OF
HEAT SHOULD BE SHORTER LIVED AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH PUSHES A
BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE UP SHUNTING THE RIDGE SOUTHWARD, AND BRINGS
CHANCES OF CONVECTION TO THE AREA.
MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS INTO QUEBEC TODAY, DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO THIS MORNING GIVES WAY TO
A MUCH DRIER FORECAST FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. POST-
FRONTAL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
SUSTAINED WINDS TO 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS. WINDS THEN
VEER AROUND THE INBOUND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OUT OF THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY. LIGHTER WINDS PREVAIL AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES AND THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......MV
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