701  
FXUS63 KDTX 131901  
AFDDTX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI  
301 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME  
SHOWERS POPPING UP ALONG OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.  
 
- HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMID  
CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.  
 
- HEAT RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
MOIST AMBIENT CONDITIONS DUE TO SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION, NOCTURNAL  
COOLING, AND RECENT RAINFALL LED TO STUBBORN LOW CLOUD AND BR EARLY  
TODAY. MAIN ITEM FOR NOTE IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE NEAR SURFACE COLD  
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING SOUTHWARD. INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC  
FLOW TRAJECTORIES AIDED BY COLDER AIR STREAMING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE  
LONG AXES OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP SWEEP OR BACKDOOR THE  
SYNOPTIC FRONT TO THE OHIO BORDER BY 03Z THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF A  
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A ROGUE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING,  
CONDITIONS WILL BE PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE  
70S BY 9-10PM.  
 
STRONG, COMPACT SURFACE RIDGING WILL EXPAND OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN  
TONIGHT AND LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY.  
JUST A GLANCING SHOT OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW THE WARM  
TEMPERATURES TO LIFT BACK INTO THE STATE QUICKLY DURING THE END OF  
THE WEEK. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO 90  
DEGREES AGAIN BY SATURDAY. THE ONE NOTE IS THAT SURFACE DEWPOINTS  
SHOULD HOLD IN THE 60S THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
 
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SHOULD  
LARGELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A MIDLEVEL TROUGH  
OVER NORTHERN CANADA SHOULD SUPPRESS HEIGHTS ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A  
WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE RETURN OF THE  
KINEMATICS COULD ALLOW FOR AN MCS OR TWO TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM  
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE U.P. THE GOING FORECAST HAS CHANCE POPS  
IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL PROMOTE NORTHERLY WINDS  
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO TOMORROW. DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW  
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON, WITH WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY AT 15  
KNOTS OR LESS, WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD BELOW 4 FEET, AND NO SMALL  
CRAFT ADVISORY IS PLANNED.  
 
RETURN FLOW AROUND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO FLIP  
AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY, BUT WINDS STILL LOOK TO BE GENERALLY  
LIGHT (UNDER 20 KNOTS) INTO SATURDAY. THE FORECAST BECOMES MUDDLED  
ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT  
LAKES. IT'S POSSIBLE FRONT WILL SPEED SOUTH, WITH ENOUGH OF A  
GRADIENT TO SUPPORT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS OVER  
LAKE HURON BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOW, AS  
CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH  
WILL ALSO TEND DISRUPT/IMPACT THE WIND FIELDS.  
 
 
   
PREV DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025  
 
AVIATION...  
 
MORNING MVFR CLOUD IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY SCATTERING EARLY THIS  
AFTERNOON. EXPECTATION IS FOR VFR TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE TERMINAL  
CORRIDOR AS CEILINGS TURN SCT NEAR OR WITHIN THE FIRST 1-2HRS OF THE  
NEW FORECAST PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS  
POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE DETROIT AIRSPACE TODAY, BUT THE  
LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO HIGHLIGHT.  
 
FOR DTW/D21 CONVECTION...LOW POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM  
AROUND THE DTW AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
 
THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...  
 
* LOW FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
* VERY LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
 
   
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MI...NONE.  
LAKE HURON...NONE.  
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.  
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...CB  
MARINE.......SF  
AVIATION.....KDK  
 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE  
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.  
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