053
FXUS63 KDTX 140408
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1208 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.
- HEAT RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
VFR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOW POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
PATCHY FOG BY AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING, BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH OF
A SIGNAL TO ADD MENTION AT THE MOMENT TO ANY TERMINAL. LIGHT WINDS
HOLD GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BEFORE A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THOSE METRO TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON THEN FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS TOWARDS THE EVENING. SHOULD LIKELY SEE ANOTHER
AROUND OF DIURNAL CUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT ANTICIPATED TO HOLD
AT VFR HEIGHTS.
FOR DTW/D21 CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD.
THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
DISCUSSION...
MOIST AMBIENT CONDITIONS DUE TO SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION, NOCTURNAL
COOLING, AND RECENT RAINFALL LED TO STUBBORN LOW CLOUD AND BR EARLY
TODAY. MAIN ITEM FOR NOTE IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE NEAR SURFACE COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING SOUTHWARD. INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW TRAJECTORIES AIDED BY COLDER AIR STREAMING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
LONG AXES OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP SWEEP OR BACKDOOR THE
SYNOPTIC FRONT TO THE OHIO BORDER BY 03Z THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A ROGUE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING,
CONDITIONS WILL BE PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE
70S BY 9-10PM.
STRONG, COMPACT SURFACE RIDGING WILL EXPAND OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TONIGHT AND LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY.
JUST A GLANCING SHOT OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW THE WARM
TEMPERATURES TO LIFT BACK INTO THE STATE QUICKLY DURING THE END OF
THE WEEK. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO 90
DEGREES AGAIN BY SATURDAY. THE ONE NOTE IS THAT SURFACE DEWPOINTS
SHOULD HOLD IN THE 60S THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SHOULD
LARGELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A MIDLEVEL TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN CANADA SHOULD SUPPRESS HEIGHTS ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE RETURN OF THE
KINEMATICS COULD ALLOW FOR AN MCS OR TWO TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE U.P. THE GOING FORECAST HAS CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.
MARINE...
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL PROMOTE NORTHERLY WINDS
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO TOMORROW. DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON, WITH WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY AT 15
KNOTS OR LESS, WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD BELOW 4 FEET, AND NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS PLANNED.
RETURN FLOW AROUND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO FLIP
AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY, BUT WINDS STILL LOOK TO BE GENERALLY
LIGHT (UNDER 20 KNOTS) INTO SATURDAY. THE FORECAST BECOMES MUDDLED
ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. IT'S POSSIBLE FRONT WILL SPEED SOUTH, WITH ENOUGH OF A
GRADIENT TO SUPPORT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS OVER
LAKE HURON BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOW, AS
CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH
WILL ALSO TEND DISRUPT/IMPACT THE WIND FIELDS.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....AA
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......SF
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