361
FXUS63 KDTX 140749
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
349 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.
- HEAT RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
- CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS TODAY WILL LEAD TO A QUIET END OF THE WEEK.
SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC HAS SPREAD
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING WEAK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WHICH
ARE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGE IN THE LOW
80S. THIS FLOW IS ALSO KEEPING HUMIDITY DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING
DOWN INTO THE LOW 60S THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PASSES EAST ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
RETURN TO THE AREA WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING TO AROUND 590 DAM.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS INITIAL MID
LEVEL RIDGE GETS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST BY AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH MAY OFFER SOME CLOUDS BUT LITTLE ELSE. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE NEXT RIDGE WHICH WILL BE DEEPER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED AS IT REACTS TO THE NEXT TROUGH COMING ASHORE THE WEST
COAST. THIS RIDGE CENTERED OVER MO WILL PUSH HEIGHTS UP TO AROUND
592 DAM FOR SATURDAY AND 850MB TEMPS CLOSE TO 20C WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN MANY LOCATIONS MAKING A RUN AT 90F AGAIN.
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE SATURDAY FOR MID MI AND THE
REST OF SOUTHERN MI FOR SUNDAY. A TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS CANADA WILL
DROP A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND THEN NORTHERN MI AS
IT REMAINS CONNECTED TO A SECOND LOW BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS TROUGH WILL SUPPRESS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BRINGING ABOUT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR ONE OR MORE MCSS
TO ROLL OVER THE RIDGE AND DOWN INTO LOWER MI. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
ANYTHING REACHING THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET NOSES INTO WI WITH ANY ACTIVITY LIKELY TURNING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BETTER INSTABILITY. A SECOND LOW LEVEL JET WITHIN
THE NORTHERN STREAM COULD EXCITE CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH WHICH THEN
COULD ROLL INTO MID MI. BETTER CHANCES, ALBEIT STILL FAIRLY LOW,
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT ITSELF IS PUSHED FARTHER SOUTH
WHICH WOULD DIRECT CONVECTION MORE INTO SE MI.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE AS AN EVEN
STRONGER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. COULD HAVE A COUPLE DAYS WITH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
MARINE
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL PROMOTE NORTHERLY WINDS
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY. DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON, WITH WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY AT 15
KNOTS OR LESS, WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD BELOW 4 FEET, AND NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS PLANNED.
RETURN FLOW AROUND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO FLIP
AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY, BUT WINDS STILL LOOK TO BE GENERALLY
LIGHT (UNDER 20 KNOTS) INTO SATURDAY. THE FORECAST BECOMES MUDDLED
ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. IT'S POSSIBLE FRONT WILL SPEED SOUTH, WITH ENOUGH OF A
GRADIENT TO SUPPORT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS OVER
LAKE HURON BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOW, AS
CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH
WILL ALSO TEND DISRUPT/IMPACT THE WIND FIELDS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
AVIATION...
VFR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOW POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
PATCHY FOG BY AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING, BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH OF
A SIGNAL TO ADD MENTION AT THE MOMENT TO ANY TERMINAL. LIGHT WINDS
HOLD GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BEFORE A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THOSE METRO TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON THEN FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS TOWARDS THE EVENING. SHOULD LIKELY SEE ANOTHER
AROUND OF DIURNAL CUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT ANTICIPATED TO HOLD
AT VFR HEIGHTS.
FOR DTW/D21 CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD.
THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....AA
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