743
FXUS63 KDTX 101021
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
621 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT, DRY SEPTEMBER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION
A DRY AIRMASS FACILITATED BY PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COLLOCATED WITH A WEAKNESS IN GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS
WILL PASS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. BKN-OVC CLOUD ABOVE 15.0-20.0
KFT AGL IS ANTICIPATED. CALM TO VARIABLE WINDS AGAIN THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT.
THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* NONE
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
DISCUSSION...
YESTERDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE PREDOMINATELY IN THE MID 70S,
WITH THE WARMEST READINGS AT PTK, DUH, AND CFS, ALL CHECKING IN AT
77 DEGREES. THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING REVEALED AN 850 MB TEMPERATURE OF 9
C AND 925 MB TEMPERATURE OF 16 C.
A MAIN SHORTWAVE BACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL BE TRACKING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY, WITH MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE/PV
ADVECTION INDICATED ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. WHILE SUFFICIENT
STABILITY AND DRY AIR ARE IN PLACE TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION,
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE A MINOR IMPACT TO OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY
FOR TEMPERATURES OF 80 DEGREES WITH 850 MB TEMPS REACHING 12+ C WITH
LIGHT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS 500 MB HEIGHTS LOOK TO REACH AT LEAST 584
DAM. 850 MB TEMPS LOOK TO HOVER AROUND 12 C THURSDAY BUT REACH AND
SLIGHTLY EXCEED 13 C ON FRIDAY, PER 00Z EURO. THUS, LOWER 80S ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS THE EASTERN THUMB
REGION DUE TO THE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS, RESULTING FROM THE STRONG
HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA.
MODELS HAVE MOSTLY CONVERGED ON A STRONG PV ANOMALY COMING OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES, TRACKING THROUGH HUDSON BAY AND INTO
QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE HEIGHT FALLS EXTENDING WEST
INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN, BUT MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD TOUCH
OFF A FEW SHOWERS BEFORE A PRONOUNCED, SUMMER-LIKE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO
REACH 588 DAM TO PERHAPS 590 DAM. NONE-THE-LESS, WITH THE LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, MIXING DEPTHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED, ESPECIALLY IF ANY EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPS. THUS, NO BIG
COMPLAINTS WITH NBM HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING MUCH PAST 80
DEGREES AT THIS TIME, AS LOW TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE 50S.
MARINE...
INFLUENCE OF NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE FADES THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
WHILE A SECOND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO THURSDAY-
FRIDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, A COLD FRONT WASHES OUT AS IT
DROPS INTO NORTHERN LAKE HURON, BUT WILL ULTIMATELY BE OVERPOWERED
BY THE INBOUND ONTARIO HIGH. THE RESULT IS A GRADUAL SHIFT TO NE/E
FLOW BY THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE STRAITS TO WESTERN LAKE ERIE. THE
REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUALLY VEERING WINDS AS
THE HIGH DRIFTS TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, RETURNING TO SW FLOW
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS HELPS DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TO GENERATE SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......MV
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