597
FXUS63 KDTX 120357
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1157 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
- AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING.
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.
- WARM AND DRY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
SURFACE TD REMAINS ELEVATED TONIGHT AFTER A DAY OF NE WIND OFF LAKE
HURON. THIS COMBINES WITH CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT/CALM WIND FOR AN
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG SETUP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
IN THE MORNING. LATE EVENING TEMPERATURE TRENDS FAVOR THE MBS AND
FNT AREAS FOR IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY WHERE T/TD SPREAD IS NARROWING
MORE QUICKLY COMPARED TO THE SLOWER PACE IN THE MORE URBANIZED DTW
METRO WHERE BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR IS MORE LIKELY. FULL MORNING SUN
THEN HELPS QUICKLY DISSIPATE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION LEADING TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF VFR CUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON.
FOR DTW/D21 CONVECTION... NO THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* NONE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. DIURNAL CU WILL ONCE AGAIN SCOUR OUT THIS EVENING
LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP WITH SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE WITH THE LENGTHENING
SEPTEMBER NIGHT. IN ADDITION, THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER
THIS EVENING, DRAWING IN SOME OF THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT'S BEEN PRODUCING FOG TO OUR WEST EACH NIGHT AND SO EXPECT A
PERIOD OF FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE FOG BURNS OFF, ANOTHER
ROUND OF DIURNAL CU SHOULD DEVELOP WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW
80S. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER AS HIGH CLOUDS START
STREAMING IN ON ELEVATED PORTIONS OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS DEVELOPING
FRIDAY.
LONGWAVE RIDGE AMPLIFIES UP THROUGH THE PLAINS HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE STALLED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TIGHTENS UP A
BIT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH WILL EXCITE LEE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EAST THROUGH IA AND NORTHERN IL. NAM AND CANADIAN CONTINUES TO SHOW
THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET FLARING UP OVER WESTERN WI IGNITING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WOULD FOLD OVER THE RIDGE AND DIVE
THROUGH SW LOWER MI IN THE MORNING SATURDAY WHILE WEAKENING WITHOUT
THE CONTINUED JET FORCING. IN ADDITION, A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH
DIVING THROUGH HUDSON BAY WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS NORTHERN FRONT MAY PRODUCE A ROUND OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN MI AND LAKE HURON
BEFORE REACHING THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE. THE
TREND IN THE FORECAST IS TO PUSH BACK THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO
THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY AS THE NORTHERN FRONT REACHES THE AREA DURING
PEAK HEATING. OVERALL CHANCES ARE STILL LOW AT LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
BUT THERE MAY BE SOME ACTIVITY CLOSE BY.
AFTER SATURDAY THE RIDGE EXPANDS FURTHER OVER THE REGION KEEPING THE
BULK OF THE JET ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH SUPPORTING QUIET WEATHER
LOCALLY WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW IS OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. WINDS VEER OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND, HOLDING COMFORTABLY AOB 10 KNOTS. INCREASING
STABILITY ALOFT MAY GENERATE PATCHY FOG FRIDAY MORNING CLOSE TO
SHORE, BUT EXPECT A MORE ROBUST RESPONSE ON LAND DUE TO MORE
FAVORABLE RADIATIVE COOLING. WINDS GAIN A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND ANOTHER
LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SATURDAY INVOF AN UPPER WAVE IN THE MORNING AND COLD FRONT THAT
TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH POOR MOISTURE DEPTHS LIMIT
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FILLS IN TO
MAINTAIN QUIET MARINE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......MV
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