452
FXUS63 KDTX 160353
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1153 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG, LOCALLY DENSE LATE TONIGHT.
- ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
- DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
NE WIND OFF CANADIAN/NORTHERN LOWER MI HIGH PRESSURE IS FUNNELING IN
FROM SAGINAW BAY JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE WIND AROUND 5 KNOTS AT MBS
HEADING INTO THE LATE NIGHT, BUT WITH A LESS RELIABLE GUIDANCE
SIGNAL OF PERSISTENCE THROUGH SUNRISE. OBSERVATIONS TO THE NORTH
TOWARD OSC ALSO ONCE AGAIN HINT AT A COMBINATION OF LIFR STRATUS AND
FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD MBS AS THE WIND DIMINISHES. POINTS SOUTH
TOWARD THE DTW CORRIDOR ARE ALSO UNDER FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS BUT WITH T/TD SPREAD A FEW DEGREES WIDER. THIS POINTS TO
MORE OF AN MVFR FOG AS LONG AS LIGHT WIND REMAINS FROM THE NE
DIRECTION, WHICH WILL BE CAREFULLY MONITORED FOR ANY CHANGES THAT
INCREASE LAKE ERIE INFLUENCE. THE GOOD THING ABOUT THE LAST FEW DAYS
OF FOG ISSUES IS THE FULL MORNING SUN HELPING TO DISSIPATE
FOG/STRATUS QUICKLY AND THIS MORNING WILL BE THE SAME. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN VFR CUMULUS ALSO DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.
FOR DTW/D21 CONVECTION... NO THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD.
THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* NONE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. 12Z DTX SOUNDING
INDICATED A 500 MB HEIGHT OF 591 DAM, NEAR RECORD HIGH FOR MID
SEPTEMBER PER SPC CLIMATOLOGY PAGE. MORNING FOG, ENHANCED BY
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE HURON, IS THE ONLY THE NOTEWORTHY
WEATHER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, AS WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
PUSH INTO THE 80S. 12Z DTX SOUNDING INDICATED A SIMILAR PROFILE TO
YESTERDAY, AND THUS NO SURPRISE MAX TEMPS ARE/OR WILL BE BACK INTO
THE LOWER 80S. 850 MB TEMPS STILL LOOKING TO BE AOA 13 C TOMORROW,
BUT THEN EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY,
SUPPORTING MID 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 80S FOR THURSDAY.
ELEVATED SURFACE DEW PTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG ONCE AGAIN, AND WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
AREAS OF FOG NORTH OF M-59 AND PATCHY FOG SOUTH.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TO END THE WORK WEEK, WITH ITS
AXIS POSITIONING MORE TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT,
BUT IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1030+ MB) BUILDS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO
FRIDAY AND INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SUBSTANTIAL
EAST-SOUTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT, WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPS A BIT COOLER, ESPECIALLY WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS FOR SATURDAY.
MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS TO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK. SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER WIND SPEEDS NEARING 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE SAGINAW BAY INTO THE EVENING GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE NORTHEAST FETCH. OTHERWISE, THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ENTER THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEARS THE REGION.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......AM
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