938
FXUS63 KDTX 021655
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1255 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- WARMING TREND RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S
BY FRIDAY, LASTING THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION
STRETCH OF DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS AGAIN ENSURES WIDESPREAD VFR
ACROSS THE REGION THIS TAF PERIOD. SOME POCKETS OF THICKER CIRRUS
PLAUSIBLE AT TIMES. MODEST WINDS GENERALLY FROM AN EAST/SOUTHEAST
TRAJECTORY. THIS FLOW COULD OFFER WEAK MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE ERIE,
LENDING TO SOME SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE DETROIT AIRSPACE
AROUND SUNRISE.
FOR DTW/D21 CONVECTION... THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT OCCUR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* NONE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
DISCUSSION...
WE START TO WARM BACK UP TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PASSED
TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE BECOMING MORE POSITIVELY TILTED
AND SUPPRESSED BY SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE JET
OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. LOCALLY WE ARE PRETTY MUCH LOCKED IN
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE DROPPING THROUGH QUEBEC WHICH WILL KEEP
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND PREVENT STRONGER WARM ADVECTION. THE
SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP A FEED OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE DAY
BUT THOSE LOOK TO CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO
BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB 5 OR SO DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY WITH MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE WITH 50S
TONIGHT VS THE 40S WE'VE SEEN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS UNDER THE MORE
FAVORABLE RADIATIVE CONDITIONS.
THE COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUING ITS TRACK SOUTHWARD
FLIPPING OUR SURFACE WINDS TO SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY, AND THE NEW RIDGE
STRENGTHENING, WILL DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS
CONTINUING TO CLIMB EACH DAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A BIG
JUMP FRIDAY TO THE MID 80S AND A FEW DEGREES MORE SATURDAY AS 850MB
TEMPS RISE TO THE MID TEENS C. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ROUGHLY 15
DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. HIGHS REMAIN IN THE MID
80S THROUGH MONDAY AS AIRMASS CHANGES VERY LITTLE AS WE AWAIT THE
TROUGH GETTING PULLED ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY A STRONG TROUGH FORMING
OVER CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG VORT MAX WILL DIVE
SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST TUESDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE FIRST CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BRINGING AN AIRMASS
WITH ORIGINS OVER NORTHERN CANADA. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO
THE LOW/MID 60S WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S.
MARINE...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY GREAT LAKES WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS WARM AND DRY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
NEAR LAKE SURFACE STABILITY, KEEPING WIND SPEEDS PREDOMINATELY BELOW
20 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON MONDAY WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ALONG WITH A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION TO
THE NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY. A FURTHER INJECTION OF COLD AIR IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WHICH MAY SUPPORT STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS (~30 KNOTS) AND LARGE WAVES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON
BASIN.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......SF
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