956
FXUS63 KDTX 021933
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
333 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- WARMING TREND RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S
BY FRIDAY, LASTING THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
HIGHS HAVE FIRMLY RETURNED TO THE MID-UPPER 70S TODAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA NUDGING 850MB TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES.
WHILE SCATTERED PATCHES OF CIRRUS CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH
DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 40S AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE,
ANOTHER COOLER NIGHT IS IN STORE AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND
50/UPPER 40S. HOTTER WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
HIGH STALLS OVER THE NORTHEAST MAINTAINING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MI. 850MB TEMPS FURTHER NUDGE UP A COUPLE DEGREES AS
A RESULT, REACHING THE MID TEENS C, SUPPORTING HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE
MID 80S THROUGH SUNDAY- SOME 20 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY OCTOBER NORMALS.
SATURDAY HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO REACH UPPER 80S WHEN THE CORE
OF THE AIRMASS ARRIVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE MID-UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER CA EJECTS TOWARDS NORTHERN ONTARIO
MERGING WITH BROAD HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW. RESPECTABLE COLD FRONT TIED
TO THIS SYSTEM IS PARTIALLY DRAGGED INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY HOWEVER MOST MID-RANGE SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST IT BRIEFLY
STALLS NEAR NORTHERN LOWER MI. MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES EVENTUALLY PHASES WITH THE DEEPENING HUDSON BAY LONGWAVE
SWINGING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. STRONG ASSOCIATED VORT MAX DRIVES THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO SE MI WHILE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS (AND PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IF THE ARRIVAL WINDOW LANDS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON). TRAILING AIRMASS DROPS 850MB TEMPS TO THE LOWER
SINGLE DIGITS (C) BRINGING SEASONABLE FALL TEMPS, ALBEIT A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE
40S TO UPPER 30S.
MARINE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON SLIDES
OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS WARM AND DRY,
WHICH WILL LEAD TO NEAR LAKE SURFACE STABILITY, KEEPING WIND SPEEDS
MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ALONG WITH A
SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION TO THE NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY. A FURTHER
INJECTION OF COLD AIR IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WHICH
LOOKS TO SUPPORT STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS (~30 KNOTS) AND LARGE
WAVES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
AVIATION...
STRETCH OF DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS AGAIN ENSURES WIDESPREAD VFR
ACROSS THE REGION THIS TAF PERIOD. SOME POCKETS OF THICKER CIRRUS
PLAUSIBLE AT TIMES. MODEST WINDS GENERALLY FROM AN EAST/SOUTHEAST
TRAJECTORY. THIS FLOW COULD OFFER WEAK MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE ERIE,
LENDING TO SOME SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE DETROIT AIRSPACE
AROUND SUNRISE.
FOR DTW/D21 CONVECTION... THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT OCCUR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* NONE.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KDK
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....MR
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