881
FXUS63 KDTX 030749
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
349 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.
- A COLD FRONT ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
PERSISTENT RIDGING REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVERHEAD AGAIN TODAY,
WITH THE 00Z KDTX RAOB SAMPLING H5 HEIGHTS OF 588 DAM. THIS MARKS
YET ANOTHER DAY OF DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. THE INVERSION THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BREAK DOWN TO ALLOW DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING, LEADING TO A WARMING TREND TODAY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND DUE TO AIRMASS MODIFICATION. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID 80S EACH DAY, WITH FORECAST HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY JUST A
FEW DEGREES SHY OF DAILY RECORD HIGHS. CONFIDENCE IS FURTHERED BY
THE NARROW INTERQUARTILE RANGES EXHIBITED BY EACH ENSEMBLE SUITE,
WITH MEANS CENTERED AROUND THE MID-80S.
THE REMNANT STABLE LAYER SHOULD BE A SUFFICIENT CAP EVEN AS WEAK
INSTABILITY BUILDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. CANNOT ENTIRELY
RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER, BUT MOST AREAS STAY MOSTLY SUNNY
AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A PATTERN SHIFT STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP
PACIFIC WAVE PHASES WITH A MORE DISORGANIZED TRAIN OF NORTHERN
STREAM WAVES. THIS EFFECTIVELY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN CONUS RIDGE,
WHICH GETS REPLACED BY BROAD TROUGHING ANCHORED TO A LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY. THE SURFACE LOW IS SWEPT OFF TO THE EAST IN THE PROCESS,
SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY AND
CREATING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN. MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS GENERATE 24-HR QPF BETWEEN 0.25-0.50". DEEP SYNOPTIC FORCING
AND MOIST RETURN FLOW ALONE PRODUCE RAIN CHANCES, BUT AN ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE COMPONENT MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE PACE OF THE FRONT.
POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH COOLER, CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR 0 C (ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB). TEMPERATURES THUS FALL MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
MARINE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO
CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP
THE AIRMASS WARM AND DRY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO NEAR LAKE SURFACE
STABILITY, KEEPING WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS, ALONG WITH A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION TO THE NORTHWEST BY
TUESDAY. A FURTHER INJECTION OF COLD AIR IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY, WHICH LOOKS TO SUPPORT STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS (~30
KNOTS) AND LARGE WAVES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN.
CLIMATE
THE RECORD HIGHS FOR SATURDAY, OCTOBER 4TH.
DETROIT: 89 DEGREES (SET IN 1951)
FLINT: 88 DEGREES (SET IN 1951)
SAGINAW: 87 DEGREES (SET IN 1967)
THE RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY, OCTOBER 5TH.
DETROIT: 88 DEGREES (SET IN 1951)
FLINT: 88 DEGREES (SET IN 1922)
SAGINAW: 86 DEGREES (SET IN 2007)
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1153 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
AVIATION...
THIN CIRRUS DEPARTS EASTWARD SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING CLEAR
SKY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI OVER LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WIND
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE SE STATES LATE
TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY FURTHER SUPPORTS DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE IS A FOG COMPONENT TO ACCOUNT FOR IN THIS PATTERN,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DTW CORRIDOR. LIGHT SE WIND OFF LAKE ERIE
DURING THE EVENING HAS SURFACE TD IN THE LOWER 50S BEFORE THE WIND
DROPS OFF FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THIS LEADS TO A TIME OF MVFR
FOG, WITH A FEW BRIEF DROPS INTO IFR, IN RADIATIONAL COOLING
PROMOTED BY THE EXIT OF HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LATE HIGH BASED CUMULUS POSSIBLE
AND AS WIND TURNS SW BUT REMAINS LIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
FOR DTW/D21 CONVECTION... THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT OCCUR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* NONE.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MV
MARINE.......SF
CLIMATE......MV
AVIATION.....BT
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